TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: CCG Esports vs Contingent Esports - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
CCG Esportsof CCG Esports, Contingent Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$84,485
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$89,871

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,485 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3eb3…4d75backed Contingent Esports37c9,228$3,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,414.4560855.8%339 W · 269 L-14.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed CCG Esports60c4,696$2,797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,899.021,37937.7%520 W · 859 L-43.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e24…4fabbacked Contingent Esports38c3,764$1,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,441.233457.8%193 W · 141 L+18.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…a2cbbacked CCG Esports74c3,024$2,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.3424554.3%133 W · 112 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe410…d4d1backed CCG Esports67c2,732$1,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89315352.9%81 W · 72 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick55cpaid+4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x62c6…ab7bbacked CCG Esports61c2,000$1,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78083460.8%507 W · 327 L+44.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc1d9…5333backed CCG Esports63c1,631$1,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610.5758259.5%346 W · 236 L+27.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Contingent Esports41c1,601$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.372,49739.9%996 W · 1,501 L-75.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0bd7…8553backed Contingent Esports39c1,339$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.7469857.4%401 W · 297 L+37.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+11.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed CCG Esports62c1,305$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.6769041.3%285 W · 405 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Contingent Esports21c1,281$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.611,05628.5%301 W · 755 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc387…5a97backed Contingent Esports40c1,256$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50060354.7%330 W · 273 L-2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdee7…1ad7backed CCG Esports74c1,227$903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.412962.8%81 W · 48 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb35f…cf4cbacked Contingent Esports32c1,110$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.6843346.7%202 W · 231 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed CCG Esports59c1,091$647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.521,93048.2%930 W · 1,000 L+24.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed CCG Esports60c999.99$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4001,20335.7%430 W · 773 L+6.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid+4.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf2bb…3250backed CCG Esports63c952.7$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.722953.7%123 W · 106 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc186…e96ebacked CCG Esports63c952.38$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.3815552.3%81 W · 74 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed CCG Esports63c928.53$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.561,04450.4%526 W · 518 L+37.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid0%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a26…1589backed Contingent Esports42c924.22$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38519147.1%90 W · 101 L-0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked Contingent Esports13c848.13$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.0212914.7%19 W · 110 L-12.7wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-35.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Contingent Esports28c762.56$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.561,81839.9%726 W · 1,092 L-59.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b89…a4cdbacked Contingent Esports40c750.5$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.270857.1%404 W · 304 L+41.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed CCG Esports60c749.62$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.862,49047.3%1,179 W · 1,311 L-31.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed CCG Esports65c726.25$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.023,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6b8…149bbacked Contingent Esports38c713.3$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.998838.6%34 W · 54 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa844…83b8backed CCG Esports62c685.85$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.5962158.8%365 W · 256 L+32.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d7e…2ef7backed CCG Esports72c683.47$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.3738963%245 W · 144 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Contingent Esports36c646.8$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.741,95230.6%597 W · 1,355 L-166.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6455…2604backed CCG Esports76c620.16$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.817961.5%110 W · 69 L+15.4wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+15%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd2b0…5e5ebacked Contingent Esports5c600$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30682.9%2 W · 66 L+0.2wins0.00per pick3cpaid-38.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e50…0ea8backed Contingent Esports5c600$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30600%0 W · 60 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9473…cba4backed Contingent Esports37c523.45$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19452045%234 W · 286 L+1.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a93…8e36backed Contingent Esports40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010365%67 W · 36 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked CCG Esports62c483.63$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.621,66059.5%987 W · 673 L+97.4wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0bf7…0fb8backed CCG Esports23c441.48$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.4814148.9%69 W · 72 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-14%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x191f…f09ebacked Contingent Esports32c412.5$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13242540.7%173 W · 252 L-17.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed CCG Esports70c405.41$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.781,20643.5%525 W · 681 L-13.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Contingent Esports38c398.99$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.812,92344.5%1,300 W · 1,623 L-91.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0328…bd17backed Contingent Esports37c375.38$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.0515857.6%91 W · 67 L+10.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Contingent Esports35c367.87$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.572,67235.7%954 W · 1,718 L-153.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Contingent Esports51c362.23$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.331,67157.9%968 W · 703 L+70.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6777…1a8dbacked CCG Esports62c336.67$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.5722751.5%117 W · 110 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb039…c6d9backed CCG Esports55c333.37$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.3616451.2%84 W · 80 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe197…71ebbacked CCG Esports56c326.03$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.1527446%126 W · 148 L-12.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked CCG Esports61c312.42$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.841,30147.2%614 W · 687 L-32.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a76…29dcbacked Contingent Esports45c305.64$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.9213764.2%88 W · 49 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1df3…9ac3backed Contingent Esports34c289.11$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.0640955.5%227 W · 182 L+23.7wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x81d1…4806backed Contingent Esports68c288.29$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.14963.3%31 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked CCG Esports61c280$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.266845.5%304 W · 364 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed CCG Esports57c256.04$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.181,09638.9%426 W · 670 L-47.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Contingent Esports41c232.12$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.172,18733.3%729 W · 1,458 L-71.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5439…c45bbacked Contingent Esports49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003571.4%25 W · 10 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+13.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x40fc…498dbacked Contingent Esports33c201.52$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.519735%69 W · 128 L-12.4wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-3.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed CCG Esports67c201.52$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.51,38145.1%623 W · 758 L-12.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67be…6e09backed Contingent Esports7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1494144.6%420 W · 521 L-2.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd1d…6f23backed CCG Esports64c197.04$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.940048.5%194 W · 206 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed CCG Esports67c196.39$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.141,59946.8%748 W · 851 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x797b…26d2backed Contingent Esports42c193.85$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.110150.5%51 W · 50 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked CCG Esports60c182.34$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.161,91742.3%810 W · 1,107 L-44.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d93…fdefbacked Contingent Esports23c170.34$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.651741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+19.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5819…2b4fbacked CCG Esports62c166.58$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.8149850.2%250 W · 248 L+31.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x826c…cd27backed CCG Esports61c164.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.298245.1%37 W · 45 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc925…6d24backed Contingent Esports30c159.92$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9462826%163 W · 465 L-89.3wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-54.1%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x2b9d…3373backed CCG Esports49c159.66$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.6111645.7%53 W · 63 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e6b…dc55backed CCG Esports44c153.68$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.6812140.5%49 W · 72 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f4b…0b44backed Contingent Esports41c150.1$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.8542455%233 W · 191 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e5e…0381backed CCG Esports62c150$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5748951.5%252 W · 237 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10ef…7d7bbacked Contingent Esports42c148.6$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7365359.4%388 W · 265 L+70.3wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x9b16…9f80backed Contingent Esports58c144.24$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.679262%57 W · 35 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Contingent Esports37c141.2$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.911,53654.8%842 W · 694 L+75.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1fb8…5a88backed Contingent Esports32c140$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.833856.2%190 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xac9e…cca3backed CCG Esports69c136.31$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.262755.6%15 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Contingent Esports24c132$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.241,23937.3%462 W · 777 L-39.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x050c…bf27backed Contingent Esports40c125.88$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5017749.7%88 W · 89 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ca0…38babacked CCG Esports18c124.14$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.141,44143.4%625 W · 816 L+105.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+20.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xca5f…41f5backed Contingent Esports26c121$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7220755.6%115 W · 92 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9bd2…b613backed CCG Esports75c119.37$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3725660.5%155 W · 101 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x39a9…c69ebacked Contingent Esports35c113.46$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402119%4 W · 17 L-3.6wins-0.17per pick36cpaid-52.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa233…41f9backed Contingent Esports37c106.57$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.431741.2%7 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.18per pick59cpaid-30.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6cd3…226ebacked CCG Esports51c101.1$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.5455428.7%159 W · 395 L-30.8wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-27.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Contingent Esports38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3877641.6%323 W · 453 L-27.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-26.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f41…5ffcbacked CCG Esports58c99$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.2123948.1%115 W · 124 L+0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x272d…bc2fbacked CCG Esports62c98.4$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.8128353.4%151 W · 132 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf08e…1256backed Contingent Esports36c93.07$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.187755.8%43 W · 34 L+11.5wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+26.8%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x4509…58aebacked Contingent Esports44c92.81$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.261,04239.6%413 W · 629 L-73.2wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-28.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6f0c…a691backed CCG Esports72c92$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.862050.6%314 W · 306 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4339…beeebacked CCG Esports61c90.89$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.3917357.8%100 W · 73 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Contingent Esports33c89.91$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.773,11933.7%1,052 W · 2,067 L-151.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed CCG Esports63c88.02$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.7862942.4%267 W · 362 L-3.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Contingent Esports48c87.3$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9484942.5%361 W · 488 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeecd…4fefbacked Contingent Esports41c86.27$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2836460.2%219 W · 145 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ac…c9f4backed CCG Esports37c80.45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.4540669.7%283 W · 123 L+34.0wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+10.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Contingent Esports51c78.03$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7526630.8%82 W · 184 L-26.5wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-42.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfbd2…2b8fbacked CCG Esports62c75$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.542451.2%217 W · 207 L+0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41b1…f560backed Contingent Esports80c75$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606963.8%44 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Contingent Esports16c74.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1240031.3%125 W · 275 L-28.3wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-37.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdbf9…61f3backed Contingent Esports14c74.07$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.374721.3%10 W · 37 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick27cpaid+1.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb46…ed08backed CCG Esports31c70$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.332337.2%120 W · 203 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf184…d472backed CCG Esports61c67.85$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2628260.6%171 W · 111 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.