Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x700c087825261cdcce3917c3aa4fe4ffa21f7dbb208f2a9e02675fa2fe052228
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,646
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,646 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed No | 11c | 2,320$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.42 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 6c | 1,254$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.46 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 22c | 262.59$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.65 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6122…7b8fbacked No | 75c | 245$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.75 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 15c | 226.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 8c | 225.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 35c | 224.14$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.4 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…71a6backed No | 74c | 220$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.1 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -6.6wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 28c | 202.25$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.62 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 75c | 192.13$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 17c | 182.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 7c | 180.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 17c | 168$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 163$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.31 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed No | 10c | 151$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…c224backed No | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e13…e968backed No | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 10c | 145.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 15c | 134.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 51c | 134.68$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 11c | 134.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd71…33bcbacked No | 10c | 133.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 73c | 129.7$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 41c | 125.54$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.59 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3744…5b16backed No | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 111.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74bc…e4dabacked No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8843…d4c5backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf26e…cf82backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked Yes | 22c | 99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.49 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 79c | 95.44$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 57c | 95$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.7 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 74c | 70$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x054c…0a1abacked Yes | 32c | 66.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.47 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed Yes | 22c | 62.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 22c | 62.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 23c | 55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a79…b31ebacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 79c | 45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 66c | 31.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 80c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on June 22?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on June 22?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 22?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on June 22?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.