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CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: OG vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #7 Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
ex-Zero Tenacityof OG, ex-Zero Tenacity
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$29,620
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,149

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,620 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbf3b…0375backed OG36c3,900$1,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,403.9940245.3%182 W · 220 L-8.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed ex-Zero Tenacity45c3,500$1,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,924.961,71053.2%909 W · 801 L+65.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3db4…d69bbacked OG55c2,500$1,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,374.9776856.9%437 W · 331 L+49.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked ex-Zero Tenacity49c2,363$1,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,210.2733449.1%164 W · 170 L-11.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0969…cd12backed ex-Zero Tenacity53c1,892$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$892.36683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick58cpaid+56.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d35…b406backed OG36c1,507$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.776036.7%22 W · 38 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked OG55c1,392$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$765.6879752.7%420 W · 377 L+27.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6e9…caedbacked ex-Zero Tenacity66c1,038$681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.933868.4%26 W · 12 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+19.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b9c…a518backed OG56c1,002$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.1118845.2%85 W · 103 L-9.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc186…e96ebacked ex-Zero Tenacity64c937.5$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.55552.7%29 W · 26 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07e8…faaebacked OG64c931.03$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60019349.7%96 W · 97 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked OG55c819.52$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.7411848.3%57 W · 61 L-6.7wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f8e…0c69backed OG37c800$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.5633737.7%127 W · 210 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed OG56c782.98$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.4763454.6%346 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked ex-Zero Tenacity66c587.13$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.478,13350.3%4,091 W · 4,042 L+169.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked ex-Zero Tenacity44c569$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.6422353.8%120 W · 103 L+0.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed OG31c560.08$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.151,50239.1%587 W · 915 L-41.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-28.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52e5…60babacked ex-Zero Tenacity52c532.95$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.957367.1%49 W · 24 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked ex-Zero Tenacity44c507.99$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.481,59851.6%824 W · 774 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked ex-Zero Tenacity44c507$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.9259134.7%205 W · 386 L-14.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed ex-Zero Tenacity64c499.85$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.132,50044.6%1,115 W · 1,385 L-67.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5317…9a3bbacked OG42c497.94$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.964445.5%20 W · 24 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x02cf…813cbacked OG55c476$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.8944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa52…865bbacked ex-Zero Tenacity64c460.44$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.762085%17 W · 3 L+4.2wins+0.21per pick64cpaid+32.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed ex-Zero Tenacity78c424.4$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.3142241.9%177 W · 245 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed OG18c412.02$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.162,73230.3%829 W · 1,903 L-120.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-30.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed ex-Zero Tenacity45c400$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2205,95437.7%2,247 W · 3,707 L+77.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d39…5408backed OG56c400$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2244450%22 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0760…80f8backed OG55c381.33$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.732817.9%5 W · 23 L-9.1wins-0.32per pick50cpaid-64.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xdf5f…555ebacked OG55c321.82$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1771154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbadb…31a7backed ex-Zero Tenacity44c300$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16815949.7%79 W · 80 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed ex-Zero Tenacity44c300$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1681,05149%515 W · 536 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b51…cf1ebacked OG55c291.56$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.364334.9%15 W · 28 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-33.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfbf3…70e3backed OG56c267.8$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15011642.2%49 W · 67 L-8.8wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-20.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5f8e…21b7backed ex-Zero Tenacity80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5018250%91 W · 91 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x920a…29e0backed OG55c243.36$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.859050%45 W · 45 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dd8…6731backed ex-Zero Tenacity64c234.38$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.381275%9 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+22.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e54…511ebacked ex-Zero Tenacity44c205.42$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.5242644.4%189 W · 237 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa005…abb1backed ex-Zero Tenacity45c194.96$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.2323952.7%126 W · 113 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40c2…aef7backed OG55c181.81$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005940.7%24 W · 35 L+0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09f3…40f4backed OG55c177.81$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.82740.7%11 W · 16 L-3.5wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-27.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed ex-Zero Tenacity66c177$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.671,14354.9%628 W · 515 L+42.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe04…1481backed OG55c156.36$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8611040.9%45 W · 65 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked ex-Zero Tenacity64c150$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5474251.1%379 W · 363 L+28.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1614…0bedbacked ex-Zero Tenacity45c150$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.511938.7%46 W · 73 L-10.1wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-16.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8948…76e5backed ex-Zero Tenacity75c140$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3542656.8%242 W · 184 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x282c…dd8ebacked ex-Zero Tenacity75c133.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.331163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick71cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfa2…7321backed OG12c122.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153125.8%8 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick29cpaid+27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7129…4517backed ex-Zero Tenacity44c120$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.21,11037.5%416 W · 694 L+34.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d8a…24c2backed OG56c117$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.529352.7%49 W · 44 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed ex-Zero Tenacity68c114$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.525,46631.5%1,722 W · 3,744 L-400.1wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbfdd…e70ebacked ex-Zero Tenacity44c113$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.2817437.4%65 W · 109 L-13.4wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-20.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked ex-Zero Tenacity61c112.79$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.475,70747.2%2,694 W · 3,013 L+45.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed ex-Zero Tenacity45c111.11$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.1129347.8%140 W · 153 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa042…cba4backed ex-Zero Tenacity45c109.47$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.7112257.4%70 W · 52 L+10.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed ex-Zero Tenacity45c104.89$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.691,34644.1%594 W · 752 L+45.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed OG10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1064548.4%312 W · 333 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8da3…7c12backed ex-Zero Tenacity67c97$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2655469.1%383 W · 171 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick71cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03ba…ab49backed ex-Zero Tenacity53c94.62$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.626354%34 W · 29 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked ex-Zero Tenacity43c91.4$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.11338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d4e…64a8backed OG55c91.36$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2520%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e2c…787cbacked OG28c87.87$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8193645.3%424 W · 512 L+1.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed ex-Zero Tenacity57c84.49$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.974,16550.9%2,119 W · 2,046 L+70.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x997c…51f3backed ex-Zero Tenacity63c79.36$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3630551.5%157 W · 148 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed ex-Zero Tenacity44c78$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.4952952.7%279 W · 250 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c6d…ab76backed ex-Zero Tenacity45c78$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.9738650.5%195 W · 191 L+1.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed OG19c69.47$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.122,69752.1%1,405 W · 1,292 L+30.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed ex-Zero Tenacity74c66.84$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2472860.2%438 W · 290 L+72.2wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+13.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdb7a…b8bdbacked ex-Zero Tenacity64c62.5$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.59272.8%67 W · 25 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc1fd…10ccbacked ex-Zero Tenacity45c60.27$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.1519767.5%133 W · 64 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93a5…c1a9backed ex-Zero Tenacity45c60$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1431…94d0backed ex-Zero Tenacity63c59.52$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.027650%38 W · 38 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58f1…7032backed OG55c55.81$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.73745.9%17 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked ex-Zero Tenacity67c55.66$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.233,70629.5%1,093 W · 2,613 L-297.7wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-43.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9506…6182backed OG55c54.55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306437.5%24 W · 40 L-5.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-21%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed OG28c53$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.641,20642%506 W · 700 L-20.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1273…8eddbacked OG56c52.68$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.524456.1%137 W · 107 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6cd3…226ebacked OG27c52$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1939822.6%90 W · 308 L-43.9wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-45.2%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked OG32c51.53$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.664,87943.4%2,116 W · 2,763 L-93.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e39…ed5fbacked ex-Zero Tenacity64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick63cpaid+20.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7fe…b4e9backed ex-Zero Tenacity64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187761%47 W · 30 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked OG41c49.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.472,74947.6%1,309 W · 1,440 L-37.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed OG55c49.29$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.111,99547.5%948 W · 1,047 L-55.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2055…1488backed OG21c48.07$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.33per pick44cpaid-85.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked ex-Zero Tenacity35c48$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.21,27954.3%694 W · 585 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe134…f6dabacked ex-Zero Tenacity45c45.16$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.043271.9%23 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+14.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x850a…b55fbacked ex-Zero Tenacity68c44.96$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.463023.3%7 W · 23 L-4.8wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-33.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8616…3bb0backed ex-Zero Tenacity78c42.28$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2858149.9%290 W · 291 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdd2…6657backed OG56c40.77$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.832157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked OG60c40.4$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.291,98442.2%838 W · 1,146 L-74.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked OG37c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.82,24147.6%1,067 W · 1,174 L-59.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x231e…3502backed OG61c40$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.51127.3%3 W · 8 L-3.2wins-0.29per pick56cpaid-58.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9ee6…b119backed ex-Zero Tenacity74c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked ex-Zero Tenacity59c37.43$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.345,18337.1%1,924 W · 3,259 L-274.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d8b…cc69backed OG57c35.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011650.9%59 W · 57 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-13%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x76d2…99a6backed ex-Zero Tenacity64c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.81968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c8c…2d81backed OG57c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.158248.6%283 W · 299 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b9d…3373backed ex-Zero Tenacity43c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.15644.6%25 W · 31 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7999…1d86backed OG57c26.32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1525942.1%109 W · 150 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde4b…1222backed OG56c25.17$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.15550.9%28 W · 27 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.