TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,700
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,637

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,700 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf496…fe79backed Under33c773.01$259 inLost-$258.8230546.9%143 W · 162 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ced…0feebacked Over67c745.97$500 inWon+$245.9776955%423 W · 346 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8430…3961backed Under30c557.79$169 inLost-$168.6337754.1%204 W · 173 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4aef…22d9backed Over65c399.99$260 inWon+$14034568.7%237 W · 108 L+24.1wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+12.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Under32c143.79$46 inLost-$46.013,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26e7…760fbacked Over68c143.79$98 inWon+$46.01333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-51%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c1b…de56backed Under34c135.74$46 inLost-$46.158943.8%39 W · 50 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90a7…5ac0backed Over66c100$66 inWon+$3421945.2%99 W · 120 L-0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x442a…e0f6backed Over65c89.98$58 inWon+$31.49250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcfe…4a37backed Under34c88.24$30 inLost-$3015349%75 W · 78 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over69c63.41$43 inWon+$19.912,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xacf9…2968backed Over68c55.73$38 inWon+$17.737846.2%36 W · 42 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a31…80d4backed Under34c52.99$18 inLost-$18.02450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa416…63f4backed Over67c49.99$33 inWon+$16.545042.2%190 W · 260 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9aef…26f6backed Over66c45.22$30 inWon+$15.2211047.3%52 W · 58 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Under32c37.38$12 inLost-$12.041,31049.2%644 W · 666 L-23.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d64…527ebacked Over67c37.31$25 inWon+$12.3162558.7%367 W · 258 L-0.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Under34c30$10 inLost-$10.261746.5%287 W · 330 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e79…83eebacked Over66c22.73$15 inWon+$7.737323.3%17 W · 56 L-10.3wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-56.6%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x651d…a588backed Over67c16.42$11 inWon+$5.422157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.