Lol · resolved market
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f04be15fa27dd27058b213c22c655bdd8e5353c5e40e7682a5a797653d5b584
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,041
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,244
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,041 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4aef…22d9backed Over | 53c | 599.97$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.99 | 345 | 68.7%237 W · 108 L | +24.1wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Under | 46c | 499.98$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.99 | 890 | 50.6%450 W · 440 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…a40abacked Over | 54c | 422.84$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.84 | 122 | 63.1%77 W · 45 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 47c | 390.91$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.69 | 2,508 | 39.8%999 W · 1,509 L | -76.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Under | 40c | 213.48$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.39 | 3,584 | 40.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L | +31.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c80…6ff1backed Under | 44c | 199.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68e9…845cbacked Over | 60c | 146.67$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.67 | 155 | 36.1%56 W · 99 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5323…326abacked Under | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a62…fc1abacked Under | 44c | 99.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaab…82a4backed Over | 55c | 99.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 134 | 51.5%69 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f7…87aebacked Over | 58c | 76.79$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca8…b713backed Under | 54c | 74.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb909…d559backed Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 296 | 43.6%129 W · 167 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Under | 41c | 48.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 961 | 49.9%480 W · 481 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…5fa9backed Over | 64c | 46.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5151…645cbacked Over | 58c | 40.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 454 | 44.3%201 W · 253 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Under | 35c | 39.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 395 | 7.1%28 W · 367 L | -122.2wins | -0.31per pick | 38cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 18-0.29 edge/pick |
| 0x9aef…26f6backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe59…0d2ebacked Over | 50c | 34.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 605 | 38.8%235 W · 370 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacf9…2968backed Over | 56c | 30.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedab…8926backed Over | 52c | 29.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 393 | 52.4%206 W · 187 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f5…6df5backed Over | 55c | 27.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 73 | 67.1%49 W · 24 L | +12.8wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Over | 50c | 27.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 229 | 55.5%127 W · 102 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31c7…eca3backed Under | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 126 | 38.9%49 W · 77 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa1a…df7ebacked Over | 60c | 23.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 344 | 31.7%109 W · 235 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf163…ca34backed Over | 56c | 22.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 1,477 | 48.3%713 W · 764 L | +45.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d1d…587bbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7765…bf48backed Over | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4?this page
- First Blood in Game 1?Hanwha Life Esports won
- First Blood in Game 2?Hanwha Life Esports won
- First Blood in Game 3?Bilibili Gaming won
- First Blood in Game 4?Hanwha Life Esports won
- First Blood in Game 5?Bilibili Gaming won
- Game 1: Odd/Even Total Kills?Odd won
- Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+1.5)Hanwha Life Esports won
- Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+2.5)Hanwha Life Esports won
- Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Bilibili Gaming (+1.5)Bilibili Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Over won
- LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational PlayoffsHanwha Life Esports won
- LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 WinnerHanwha Life Esports won
- LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 WinnerBilibili Gaming won
- LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 3 WinnerBilibili Gaming won
- LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 4 WinnerHanwha Life Esports won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 5?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 5?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.