TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

First Blood in Game 4?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Hanwha Life Esportsof Bilibili Gaming, Hanwha Life Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,482
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$35,373

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,482 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x70cf…1b41backed Bilibili Gaming1c5,000$50 inLost-$50140%0 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc827…ff0fbacked Bilibili Gaming1c3,000$30 inLost-$30260%0 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cd2…4cb9backed Bilibili Gaming1c2,400$24 inLost-$24280%0 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc818…1da3backed Bilibili Gaming1c713.93$10 inLost-$103737.8%14 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+18.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Hanwha Life Esports47c693.92$326 inWon+$367.783,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Bilibili Gaming53c459.9$244 inLost-$243.862,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7119…db8dbacked Bilibili Gaming54c370.39$200 inLost-$2005149%25 W · 26 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid+14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x665e…dc39backed Hanwha Life Esports54c259.54$140 inWon+$119.062236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeef9…8731backed Hanwha Life Esports46c248.04$114 inWon+$133.9434756.5%196 W · 151 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7a…aaaebacked Bilibili Gaming54c185.43$100 inLost-$10026151.7%135 W · 126 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c9…52adbacked Bilibili Gaming6c162.82$10 inLost-$101369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.9wins+0.30per pick39cpaid+76.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd59b…e06cbacked Bilibili Gaming53c91.36$48 inLost-$48.423154.8%17 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed08…ed3bbacked Bilibili Gaming52c57.69$30 inLost-$3022444.6%100 W · 124 L+1.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x397f…85f6backed Bilibili Gaming53c28.5$15 inLost-$156238.7%24 W · 38 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ec8…a663backed Bilibili Gaming53c28.3$15 inLost-$15450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc31e…756ebacked Bilibili Gaming54c25.93$14 inLost-$14911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick32cpaid-63.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.