Will Canada be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71fd6c01dcff5d95b5a6e30b2df06936e26bf305cb9d4bebebb56403296a8886

Rebuilt 20 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 24, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,728
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,653

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,728 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1341…0853backed No	45c	316$141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$174.96	534	48.5%259 W · 275 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaa2…c75fbacked Yes	20c	123.33$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	81	44.4%36 W · 45 L	+3.2wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2131…7325backed Yes	55c	100$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-3.2wins	-0.30per pick	39cpaid	-80.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed No	79c	50.02$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.5	764	45.9%351 W · 413 L	-10.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No	80c	50$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	486	36.6%178 W · 308 L	-48.4wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	39-0.09 edge/pick
0x52ca…2453backed Yes	55c	50$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.5	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	60cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94d7…b6afbacked Yes	55c	30$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.31per pick	64cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked No	70c	20.72$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.25	50	14%7 W · 43 L	-7.2wins	-0.14per pick	28cpaid	-79.3%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1015…c873backed Yes	56c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	92	37%34 W · 58 L	+3.3wins	+0.04per pick	33cpaid	+23.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Yes	56c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	117	48.7%57 W · 60 L	-15.0wins	-0.13per pick	62cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x023d…3431backed Yes	56c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	34	38.2%13 W · 21 L	-3.8wins	-0.11per pick	49cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x426f…e76bbacked No	78c	18.34$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.03	80	43.8%35 W · 45 L	-5.3wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Canada be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event