TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Will Paraguay be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,205
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,248

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,205 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1341…0853backed No52c747.44$386 inLost-$386.553448.5%259 W · 275 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No49c298.02$145 inLost-$145.4247648.5%231 W · 245 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05f0…2469backed Yes50c295$148 inWon+$147.512945%58 W · 71 L+7.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e08…e99bbacked No50c171$85 inLost-$8513855.1%76 W · 62 L+6.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes49c167$82 inWon+$85.1723543%101 W · 134 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No50c116$58 inLost-$5826037.3%97 W · 163 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9448…b72ebacked Yes48c100$48 inWon+$528525.9%22 W · 63 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes45c96.18$43 inWon+$52.914920.8%31 W · 118 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes48c94$45 inWon+$48.8866239.6%262 W · 400 L-48.1wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-25.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd3b2…2171backed Yes51c50$26 inWon+$24.51145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-25.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd28…374abacked Yes54c50$27 inWon+$2313251.5%68 W · 64 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3af9…b4bbbacked Yes48c50$24 inWon+$262450%12 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+30.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x03e1…e180backed Yes46c50$23 inWon+$276940.6%28 W · 41 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfec1…b807backed No50c50$25 inLost-$253246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x734b…2a2cbacked Yes50c50$25 inWon+$252157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c15…9a45backed No71c48.77$35 inLost-$34.836350.1%182 W · 181 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7db…6688backed No56c37.78$21 inLost-$21.1616740.7%68 W · 99 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4e9…bf77backed Yes50c35$18 inWon+$17.55450%27 W · 27 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x476c…ce52backed Yes40c31.82$13 inWon+$19.0925443.7%111 W · 143 L+0.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No57c26.74$15 inLost-$15.252,79656.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L-9.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8454…331abacked Yes50c21$11 inWon+$10.510441.3%43 W · 61 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc10b…96d5backed Yes50c20$10 inWon+$101553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.