TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

O/U 2.5 Rounds

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$114,464
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$116,709

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,464 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa710…23c4backed Under39c99,883$38,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,954.116244.4%72 W · 90 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa680…211bbacked Over61c44,262$27,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,262.3366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Over61c17,205$10,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,717.410949.5%54 W · 55 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Over61c13,250$8,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,167.52941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-18.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Over61c10,500$6,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,09511657.8%67 W · 49 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Under39c9,000$3,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,509.996738.8%26 W · 41 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacae…6798backed Over61c4,000$2,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,560850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc50f…3ad3backed Over61c2,000$1,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7801136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-40.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Over61c1,800$1,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7026254.8%34 W · 28 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x08fe…aedfbacked Over61c1,700$1,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6632050%10 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd04…a64abacked Over61c1,639$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.342850%14 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Over61c1,334$814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.456653%35 W · 31 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Over60c700$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2804153.7%22 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over61c675.67$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.5137152.8%196 W · 175 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Under39c655$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.451457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+42.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa535…9e5ebacked Over61c580.33$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.332055%11 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa917…4e8dbacked Over61c573.77$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.771650%8 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x108c…122dbacked Over61c572$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.08540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-35.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked Over61c490.67$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.674055%22 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x362a…f541backed Over61c396.2$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.52250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under38c389.91$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.1729133.7%98 W · 193 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c50…2de6backed Over62c312$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.561145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60c…d2e2backed Over61c287$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.93728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-54.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1f0…c9e4backed Over61c287$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.93742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef86…5afcbacked Over61c287$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.931631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.0wins-0.19per pick50cpaid-32.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb89b…a39dbacked Over61c287$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.931650%8 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb74f…030abacked Over61c287$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.93616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.34per pick50cpaid-72.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9a8f…5259backed Over61c286.89$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.892437.5%9 W · 15 L-4.4wins-0.18per pick56cpaid-31%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdf5b…24adbacked Under40c285$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9438…d662backed Over61c235$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.652100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1e4…a1adbacked Over61c234$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.26425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-59%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3f6…bab8backed Over61c213$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.07728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick53cpaid-49.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6df…588cbacked Over61c202$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.782138.1%8 W · 13 L-3.6wins-0.17per pick55cpaid-33.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x40d2…312fbacked Over61c200$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$784240.5%17 W · 25 L-5.0wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-25.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4b6c…9a83backed Over61c196.72$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.72955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+28.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ca4…aa92backed Under40c175$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+38.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d24…9c89backed Over61c174$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.861435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-25.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3d8…c0f2backed Over61c170$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.3728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick54cpaid-57.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Over61c163.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.931471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x292e…172cbacked Over61c163.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.931471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe44c…f15cbacked Over61c163.64$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.82875%6 W · 2 L+3.1wins+0.38per pick37cpaid+106.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1e6d…e537backed Over64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-47.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6222…b3e8backed Over61c151$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.895742.1%24 W · 33 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-7.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6e8…ed04backed Over61c147.54$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.54580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Over61c147.54$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.546553.8%35 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x931f…2e44backed Under40c145$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.15per pick43cpaid+41.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x540f…92bebacked Over61c145$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.55650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5818…39e2backed Over61c145$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.55650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe05f…1fe3backed Over61c145$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.551553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec38…ca10backed Over61c145$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.551442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-27.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x342d…608cbacked Over61c145$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.55333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e4a…1a5cbacked Over61c144.26$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.261050%5 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d83…8eb4backed Over61c133.43$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.04862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+32.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1489…9924backed Over61c132$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.481353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe235…aba2backed Over64c117.44$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.28450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e0…457fbacked Over61c117$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.631338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick54cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Over61c117$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.632157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+25.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x08f1…705cbacked Over61c116$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.242343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe02…5fb3backed Over61c113.57$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.291450%7 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa60d…03a8backed Over61c101.64$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.641643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0654…f5a9backed Over61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a96…b382backed Over61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over59c94.52$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.7542054%227 W · 193 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x990a…a9cebacked Over61c90.83$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.422352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8632…4696backed Over61c89.84$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.04742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed Over61c88$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.328361.4%51 W · 32 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x743c…53a2backed Under40c86.1$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8726…0f36backed Under39c82$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.988638.4%33 W · 53 L-5.8wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x04b7…7491backed Under39c82$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.981225%3 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-44.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x529c…053ebacked Over61c82$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.98933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.7wins-0.30per pick64cpaid-49%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Over61c81.96$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.966355.6%35 W · 28 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56e4…6ee4backed Over61c79$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.81933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-42%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5d2…8547backed Under40c76.56$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc47a…68e6backed Over61c74$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.86728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.25per pick54cpaid-46.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x776c…8863backed Over61c73.77$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.77616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.36per pick53cpaid-72.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4edd…ab3dbacked Over62c73$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.74771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick52cpaid+58.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7d4…253cbacked Under40c71.84$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c5…b613backed Over61c71$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.693151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x669d…3a77backed Over61c70$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-21.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under38c69.38$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.368848.9%43 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef2e…8d89backed Over61c65.57$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.571070%7 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+18.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d41…f237backed Over61c65.57$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d8e…3d55backed Over61c63.74$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.861546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-20.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ca7…e965backed Over61c60$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa415…6fb9backed Over61c60$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.46857.4%39 W · 29 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e4a…4ce0backed Over61c60$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.41457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Over61c59.02$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.027850%39 W · 39 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4025…8a80backed Over61c59.02$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.02955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick59cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa484…705dbacked Over61c58.98$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0642…8c68backed Over61c58$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.623568.6%24 W · 11 L+3.1wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb409…03e9backed Over61c54.56$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.28366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d75…12a6backed Over61c53.38$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.821353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb49…21b1backed Over61c51.39$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.04944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaeb7…2c57backed Over61c50.82$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.82333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6100…ffaabacked Over61c50.42$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa18f…c57abacked Over61c49.2$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.19742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f98…ce6dbacked Over61c46.89$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c3d…b2f3backed Over61c42.96$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Over61c40.88$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.94757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa68d…fa24backed Over61c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick62cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.