Fifa International · resolved market
Will Senegal be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x723ae97d7f07eb7997cfd0d636c56b7c5872978474d4489e4d524b92ab916462
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,488
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,402
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,488 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1622…d2aebacked Yes | 15c | 1,300$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 168 | 41.1%69 W · 99 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 19c | 1,070$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.35 | 1,067 | 49.1%524 W · 543 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 1,029$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.2 | 656 | 51.7%339 W · 317 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e80…505ebacked Yes | 25c | 784.81$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked Yes | 17c | 566.33$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.81 | 878 | 37.2%327 W · 551 L | -41.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 26c | 549.01$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.37 | 589 | 26.8%158 W · 431 L | -30.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0121…f722backed No | 72c | 360.1$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.44 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a31…1164backed Yes | 22c | 360$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 186 | 36.6%68 W · 118 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 78c | 314.99$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.34 | 438 | 35.8%157 W · 281 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…6dfebacked Yes | 19c | 308.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 18c | 280$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 609 | 8.4%51 W · 558 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 22c | 259.39$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 412 | 31.6%130 W · 282 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 73c | 235$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.45 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked Yes | 16c | 223$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 226 | 23.5%53 W · 173 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 15c | 188.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 212 | 39.6%84 W · 128 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 19c | 169.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 79c | 150.96$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 75c | 136.93$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.23 | 112 | 41.1%46 W · 66 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 15c | 128.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 172 | 17.4%30 W · 142 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd439…21d3backed Yes | 24c | 125.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +7.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed Yes | 25c | 125$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 144 | 36.1%52 W · 92 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 13c | 122$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 235 | 43%101 W · 134 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…cb96backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 920 | 38.5%354 W · 566 L | -21.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 75c | 95$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 320 | 44.1%141 W · 179 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 74c | 87.97$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 217 | 49.8%108 W · 109 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 80c | 77.9$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 350 | 35.7%125 W · 225 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 18c | 57.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 457 | 36.3%166 W · 291 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 19c | 54.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 764 | 45.9%351 W · 413 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe0…48e5backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9776…d2cabacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2818…f033backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Yes | 37c | 37.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 202 | 50%101 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacfa…d0c4backed Yes | 32c | 36.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 148 | 58.8%87 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 285 | 54.4%155 W · 130 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 175 | 58.9%103 W · 72 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x039b…f701backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9384…1772backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012b…8ea2backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…3404backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 67c | 17.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 75c | 16.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 427 | 37.2%159 W · 268 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 65c | 15.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 1,795 | 44.2%794 W · 1,001 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Senegal be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?this page
- Will Senegal be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?No won
- Will Senegal be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?No won
- Will Senegal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?Yes won
- Will Senegal be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?No won
- Will Senegal win the World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.