TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Roehampton: Lucas Poullain vs Max Basing

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lucas Poullainof Lucas Poullain, Max Basing
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$56,787
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$65,978

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,787 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Max Basing25c5,340$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,359.958,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca97…49f6backed Lucas Poullain73c4,699$3,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,268.6310448.1%50 W · 54 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Max Basing27c3,340$906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905.8811,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd403…a817backed Max Basing2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40500%0 W · 50 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Lucas Poullain46c1,963$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,053.676,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Max Basing54c1,804$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$972.4327744.4%123 W · 154 L-12.7wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Max Basing41c1,775$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.658,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14a2…704cbacked Max Basing12c1,691$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20014418.1%26 W · 118 L-0.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Lucas Poullain40c1,300$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78032637.4%122 W · 204 L-0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Max Basing60c1,281$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$768.31,72948.9%845 W · 884 L+53.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Lucas Poullain67c1,204$808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.443,06857.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L+173.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc627…47b2backed Lucas Poullain53c1,132$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.0838557.1%220 W · 165 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Lucas Poullain73c1,069$778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.034,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c5b…ec01backed Max Basing48c1,042$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50025542%107 W · 148 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f17…0724backed Lucas Poullain51c964.82$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.2570254.4%382 W · 320 L+40.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Max Basing33c906.57$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,84148.5%892 W · 949 L-32.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Lucas Poullain69c885.09$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.939,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Lucas Poullain47c878.8$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.774,24152.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L+65.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd212…1248backed Lucas Poullain71c800$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2321855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Lucas Poullain69c799.98$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.91,62449.8%809 W · 815 L-9.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd772…1d8fbacked Lucas Poullain68c733.47$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.472951.7%15 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-19.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Max Basing44c733.46$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.213,60542.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L-43.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a49…737abacked Lucas Poullain71c704.23$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.2320563.4%130 W · 75 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51e1…5ec9backed Max Basing21c700$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14644018.9%83 W · 357 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Max Basing32c656.64$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2101,56640%627 W · 939 L-32.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x470a…881ebacked Lucas Poullain39c608.18$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.993050%15 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Max Basing59c584.74$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.043,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c99…8b23backed Lucas Poullain40c500$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30016160.2%97 W · 64 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93a0…6623backed Max Basing62c499.99$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.99757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c62…7357backed Max Basing22c499.99$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1105625%14 W · 42 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Lucas Poullain67c495.55$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.244,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Max Basing25c488.37$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.074,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4087…048bbacked Lucas Poullain68c455$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.68751.7%45 W · 42 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e8…6300backed Lucas Poullain77c390.74$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.110954.1%59 W · 50 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x365f…706abacked Max Basing28c382.77$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.231,79546.6%837 W · 958 L+20.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9694…b7adbacked Lucas Poullain79c364.41$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.532,05859.5%1,225 W · 833 L-1.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Max Basing60c362.98$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.791,67948.1%808 W · 871 L+36.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5703…1048backed Max Basing9c333.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010729.9%32 W · 75 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5deb…ccddbacked Lucas Poullain72c329.46$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.2672147.3%341 W · 380 L-18.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Max Basing36c316.29$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.0992237.4%345 W · 577 L-10.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Max Basing61c300$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.2552847%248 W · 280 L-19.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d32…25a8backed Lucas Poullain77c298.96$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.298267.1%55 W · 27 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Lucas Poullain38c289.9$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.261,43524.3%348 W · 1,087 L-36.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b0f…b7aebacked Lucas Poullain40c286.05$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.6340836.8%150 W · 258 L-1.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid+6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4be2…4c5bbacked Max Basing18c277.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-24.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedec…3b5fbacked Lucas Poullain41c243.9$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.95552.7%29 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Max Basing20c243.12$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.531,70844.8%766 W · 942 L-18.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6528…2dcebacked Lucas Poullain67c225.13$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.295263.5%33 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+3.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x488c…a2dabacked Lucas Poullain70c214.29$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.296960.9%42 W · 27 L+6.0wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+16.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd46e…d10dbacked Max Basing9c211.11$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1958931.1%183 W · 406 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40e9…494fbacked Max Basing21c206.78$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0944729.3%131 W · 316 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-33.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5404…5e58backed Max Basing14c200$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.668430%205 W · 479 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6feb…c082backed Lucas Poullain40c171.55$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.9330644.1%135 W · 171 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Max Basing27c170$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.988358.2%514 W · 369 L+12.9wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d6d…f2b4backed Max Basing63c158.73$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10047058.5%275 W · 195 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Lucas Poullain78c155.9$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.88,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Max Basing37c150.75$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.921,71053.7%918 W · 792 L+30.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2471…4523backed Max Basing18c137.69$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.113527.4%37 W · 98 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+19.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x47c9…2038backed Max Basing28c127.74$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7744138.8%171 W · 270 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cba…b694backed Max Basing23c114.68$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.891,42944.2%631 W · 798 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3da8…be26backed Lucas Poullain39c111.95$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.7469545.8%318 W · 377 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d1…de26backed Lucas Poullain38c105.26$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.2627943.4%121 W · 158 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1d6…2dfdbacked Lucas Poullain41c104.51$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.664736.2%17 W · 30 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Max Basing61c100$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611,95548%939 W · 1,016 L+16.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87f7…8f45backed Max Basing32c96.35$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6848947.4%232 W · 257 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd215…757abacked Lucas Poullain67c84.82$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.9928954.3%157 W · 132 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b04…403fbacked Max Basing48c83.31$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.995228.8%15 W · 37 L-5.6wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-30.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Lucas Poullain44c82.46$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.1895050.1%476 W · 474 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcbb…07d9backed Lucas Poullain72c80.07$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.7623256.5%131 W · 101 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x167a…d542backed Lucas Poullain65c78$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.31,83759.2%1,088 W · 749 L+8.4wins0.00per pick59cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d62…7267backed Lucas Poullain65c71.93$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.521442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+23.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd355…e402backed Max Basing26c70.94$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6214536.6%53 W · 92 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1230…c70bbacked Lucas Poullain72c69.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4426955%148 W · 121 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Max Basing37c69.02$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.615,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6485…a265backed Max Basing52c62.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.012,28152%1,187 W · 1,094 L+82.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x301f…e84cbacked Lucas Poullain75c60$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1530268.9%208 W · 94 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe419…8aedbacked Max Basing26c60$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.44637%17 W · 29 L-4.5wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-9.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ee3…2e6abacked Lucas Poullain38c59.71$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.0229945.8%137 W · 162 L+20.6wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+21.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3d6f…b08ebacked Lucas Poullain78c57.69$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Max Basing28c57.43$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9631948.9%156 W · 163 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x05c5…8181backed Lucas Poullain53c56.6$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.681256.2%456 W · 356 L-3.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Lucas Poullain77c55.81$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.944,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb720…da75backed Lucas Poullain65c53.27$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.6435164.7%227 W · 124 L+20.8wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Lucas Poullain38c52.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.635,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e1e…cbfbbacked Max Basing30c51.55$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7214052.1%73 W · 67 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x734e…edbdbacked Max Basing48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245932.2%19 W · 40 L-8.1wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-27.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x379f…7d70backed Max Basing60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3021056.2%118 W · 92 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Max Basing37c48.94$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.332,76647.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x345c…b59dbacked Lucas Poullain41c48.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.9410756.1%60 W · 47 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x360c…bf96backed Max Basing61c48.38$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.516738.8%26 W · 41 L-9.2wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-28.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Max Basing28c48.1$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.376,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08c8…016abacked Max Basing52c46$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9137058.4%216 W · 154 L-17.8wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-8.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Lucas Poullain41c46$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.141,22753.2%653 W · 574 L-5.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Max Basing48c45.73$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.85,41648.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L+14.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfb3…f890backed Lucas Poullain80c38.73$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7513351.1%68 W · 65 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2903…9203backed Lucas Poullain65c36.77$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.871,07660.4%650 W · 426 L+24.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Lucas Poullain69c34.81$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.637,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Lucas Poullain38c33.71$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.97,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13b2…5486backed Max Basing62c32.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208777%67 W · 20 L+7.4wins+0.09per pick69cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xad22…1e9fbacked Max Basing48c31.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153438.2%13 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.