Movies · resolved market
Will "Enola Holmes 3" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72dbb0b9d6c3987513b5ad8c808a1bcdd91364d2425b0cead3d89ffd0a1b109f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,814
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,814 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 10c | 7,665$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.79 | 95 | 6.3%6 W · 89 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -79%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Yes | 13c | 6,199$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.35 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x237b…cdecbacked No | 79c | 5,575$4,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,184.26 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked Yes | 7c | 789$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.05 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 42c | 781.18$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.68 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked Yes | 20c | 494.58$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.09 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Yes | 16c | 467.51$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b8ddbacked Yes | 6c | 398$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 289.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01e9…5250backed No | 45c | 256.71$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.99 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 12c | 222$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -13.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 9c | 197.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 23c | 147.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 14c | 132.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed Yes | 51c | 121$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.75 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 63c | 112$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.56 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -44%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 36c | 99.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0127…e653backed Yes | 64c | 93.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 13c | 91.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 119 | 24.4%29 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked Yes | 25c | 88.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed No | 53c | 72.96$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 60c | 64.58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 268 | 6.3%17 W · 251 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd470…9b38backed Yes | 57c | 63.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6d…b81fbacked Yes | 63c | 62.39$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe88f…c4febacked Yes | 63c | 61.95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7b…ffc1backed Yes | 63c | 61.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…f17bbacked Yes | 63c | 60.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb75f…f98bbacked Yes | 63c | 60.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…73e3backed Yes | 63c | 60.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffcd…1666backed Yes | 63c | 60.13$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 38c | 59.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…b24abacked Yes | 63c | 57.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…d09cbacked Yes | 63c | 57.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae19…5cb0backed Yes | 63c | 56.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb4…b673backed Yes | 63c | 55.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355d…1052backed Yes | 63c | 55.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 54.71$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 111 | 84.7%94 W · 17 L | +11.3wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 28c | 53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d48…678cbacked Yes | 66c | 50.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 48c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed Yes | 58c | 21.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +161%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67ce…cd2fbacked No | 62c | 21.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 25cpaid | +157.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -5.5wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x07c1…452fbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +92%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…04d4backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 67c | 18.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…e04ebacked No | 59c | 17.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Enola Holmes 3" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?this page
- Will "Spider-Man: Homecoming" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.