TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Bradley Braves vs. UIC Flames

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
UIC Flamesof Bradley Braves, UIC Flames
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$64,406
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$71,521

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,406 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3f08…ed44backed UIC Flames70c5,772$4,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,718.9546446.8%217 W · 247 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Bradley Braves41c5,080$2,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,105.2237441.7%156 W · 218 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked UIC Flames59c4,474$2,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,843.91,51147.8%722 W · 789 L-35.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Bradley Braves30c4,085$1,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,213.515,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed UIC Flames57c3,968$2,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,705.541,07443.3%465 W · 609 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked UIC Flames55c3,881$2,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,746.5489645.9%411 W · 485 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked UIC Flames65c3,565$2,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,244.891,05855.8%590 W · 468 L+34.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Bradley Braves40c3,151$1,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,270.372,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Bradley Braves43c3,024$1,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,312.21,39752.7%736 W · 661 L+26.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed UIC Flames59c2,128$1,254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$873.521,44643.4%627 W · 819 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Bradley Braves25c1,710$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.381,98326.4%523 W · 1,460 L-55.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Bradley Braves36c1,440$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.539742.8%170 W · 227 L-15.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed UIC Flames60c1,420$853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.5489850%449 W · 449 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bradley Braves41c1,325$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.292,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked UIC Flames65c1,213$786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.831,53150.1%767 W · 764 L+34.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9405…c071backed Bradley Braves39c1,179$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.8844549.4%220 W · 225 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed UIC Flames58c1,155$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.843,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed UIC Flames48c901.18$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.62,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed UIC Flames65c858.7$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.752,00353.7%1,076 W · 927 L+101.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1f0…c9e4backed UIC Flames58c810.27$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.3122954.1%124 W · 105 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6e3…6dfebacked UIC Flames71c697.63$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.2327450%137 W · 137 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Bradley Braves45c693.94$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.2782048.2%395 W · 425 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed UIC Flames63c631.72$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.533,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Bradley Braves42c498.78$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.52,19433.4%733 W · 1,461 L+19.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Bradley Braves32c457.59$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.572,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb729…4e2ebacked Bradley Braves46c450.77$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.858544.7%38 W · 47 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Bradley Braves40c446.22$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.4979448.9%388 W · 406 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked Bradley Braves41c349.57$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.3255532.8%182 W · 373 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Bradley Braves31c347.41$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.671,42043.9%623 W · 797 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x009b…e769backed UIC Flames61c323.97$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.637360.3%44 W · 29 L-0.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9f8…e913backed UIC Flames60c313.58$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.4325049.2%123 W · 127 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ed1…caa2backed Bradley Braves25c300$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7525325.3%64 W · 189 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81ac…ae05backed Bradley Braves39c300$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Bradley Braves39c289.58$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.9493447.9%447 W · 487 L-19.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe545…5bacbacked Bradley Braves14c285.19$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4910347.6%49 W · 54 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb31…7b95backed Bradley Braves39c254.43$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1712230.3%37 W · 85 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-21.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Bradley Braves40c247.9$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.161,25150.6%633 W · 618 L+12.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f8d…4537backed Bradley Braves40c247.9$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.16450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-30%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ff4…743dbacked UIC Flames80c236.43$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.4614451.4%74 W · 70 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Bradley Braves41c223$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.4330249.3%149 W · 153 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d70…fdd9backed UIC Flames57c222.62$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.1693247.3%441 W · 491 L-22.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x47cb…dfdabacked Bradley Braves26c222.47$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.5836535.9%131 W · 234 L+1.4wins0.00per pick36cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked UIC Flames73c218.67$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.631,88745.2%853 W · 1,034 L+6.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Bradley Braves42c199.14$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.631,31733.6%443 W · 874 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Bradley Braves35c198.41$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.441,54041.3%636 W · 904 L+4.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcac6…5995backed UIC Flames58c198.29$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.281369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+85.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed UIC Flames55c185$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.2557448.3%277 W · 297 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed UIC Flames58c170.06$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.4284147.4%399 W · 442 L-13.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x989a…afbcbacked UIC Flames63c164.42$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.3370349.6%349 W · 354 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Bradley Braves42c155.23$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.1950548.9%247 W · 258 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Bradley Braves45c154.34$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.443,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a84…7a8ebacked Bradley Braves47c138.23$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.553452.9%18 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5af…f9e3backed UIC Flames58c136.42$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.1110252%53 W · 49 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x701f…9b8fbacked UIC Flames59c134.45$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.123151.6%16 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5271…0f95backed UIC Flames61c131.89$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.446740.3%27 W · 40 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Bradley Braves16c130.42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.481,66736.4%607 W · 1,060 L-4.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fc5…d36ebacked UIC Flames64c129.81$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.4810043%43 W · 57 L-9.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-21.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Bradley Braves14c117.39$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.781926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick19cpaid-33.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bradley Braves43c111.28$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.785,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8236…6479backed Bradley Braves42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421650%8 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfce0…ff19backed Bradley Braves42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+30.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked Bradley Braves22c87.06$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4887047.2%411 W · 459 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Bradley Braves40c85.76$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.350745.2%229 W · 278 L+0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Bradley Braves42c85.54$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9143053.3%229 W · 201 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c97…c20bbacked UIC Flames58c85.47$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.935646.6%166 W · 190 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03c7…22f2backed Bradley Braves47c84.06$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.657746.8%36 W · 41 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid+8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked UIC Flames78c82$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.041,95145.1%880 W · 1,071 L-19.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e40…cf85backed Bradley Braves38c80.38$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5521937.4%82 W · 137 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed UIC Flames59c80.26$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.9126254.2%142 W · 120 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd88a…1eefbacked Bradley Braves40c63.63$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4520834.6%72 W · 136 L-8.8wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Bradley Braves27c58.21$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.971,24916.4%205 W · 1,044 L-189.4wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xef2e…8d89backed UIC Flames58c51.28$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5449849.6%247 W · 251 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cec…5326backed UIC Flames59c49.58$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.3385248.8%416 W · 436 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8f…1f83backed UIC Flames56c49.57$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.8164658.8%380 W · 266 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x223f…2050backed Bradley Braves25c49.15$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0570936.1%256 W · 453 L-27.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1b5…2e74backed Bradley Braves41c48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7419860.1%119 W · 79 L+15.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+18.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Bradley Braves26c44.59$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.644,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9aea…4793backed Bradley Braves45c36.55$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.432857.1%16 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1131…6181backed UIC Flames58c30.71$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-56.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1835…2ca8backed UIC Flames58c30.26$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b76…2aa9backed Bradley Braves43c29.88$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.85366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+30.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x223f…2ea0backed Bradley Braves43c29.57$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.72250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ac8…787dbacked Bradley Braves43c29.08$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb02…0f88backed UIC Flames66c28.77$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.788641.9%36 W · 50 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-23.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x44b6…98b4backed Bradley Braves40c28.73$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4913845.7%63 W · 75 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb318…67bdbacked UIC Flames58c28.4$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.93366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+21.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f1e…5a2abacked UIC Flames67c27.73$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.124247.6%20 W · 22 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-20.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7a2b…cb3abacked UIC Flames72c27.35$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.676549.2%32 W · 33 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb8a5…ad6fbacked Bradley Braves43c26.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x43a6…96c1backed UIC Flames58c26.16$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.993100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+93.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf395…ac0abacked UIC Flames57c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7535650.8%181 W · 175 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe496…4d8bbacked Bradley Braves42c24.79$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.417945.8%82 W · 97 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68c4…d7dfbacked Bradley Braves41c24.4$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1017634.7%61 W · 115 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+20.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7817…d4b1backed UIC Flames63c20.15$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.462347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+21.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3468…754fbacked UIC Flames64c19.84$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.132100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked UIC Flames59c19.83$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1348551.1%248 W · 237 L+15.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed UIC Flames66c17.74$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0557655%317 W · 259 L+17.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea10…a070backed UIC Flames65c17.66$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1821059.5%125 W · 85 L+17.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+14.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe7e0…a433backed Bradley Braves67c16.12$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8215246.7%71 W · 81 L-8.3wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed UIC Flames70c15.52$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.61,49348.7%727 W · 766 L-1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.