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CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs Rare Atom (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asia Cup #1 Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Rare Atomof The Huns Esports, Rare Atom
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$100,882
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$104,702

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,882 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 185 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Rare Atom65c14,052$9,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,875.655,19455.2%2,869 W · 2,325 L+131.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ee0…fdf9backed The Huns Esports1c10,110$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.94560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed The Huns Esports35c4,474$1,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,575.221,71053.2%909 W · 801 L+65.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4959…f2d0backed Rare Atom47c4,289$2,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,281.466063.3%38 W · 22 L+7.3wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+21.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0063…2dd2backed Rare Atom79c3,492$2,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744.6750564.8%327 W · 178 L+59.3wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Rare Atom66c2,409$1,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$819.352,69752.1%1,405 W · 1,292 L+30.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed The Huns Esports56c1,859$1,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,048.952,56143.2%1,107 W · 1,454 L+42.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fd8…ce32backed The Huns Esports33c1,600$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5301353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Rare Atom63c1,587$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.363156.4%356 W · 275 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Rare Atom42c1,426$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$824.5181045.9%372 W · 438 L-24.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Rare Atom66c1,414$934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.982,07154%1,119 W · 952 L+14.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked The Huns Esports38c1,290$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.793,70629.5%1,093 W · 2,613 L-297.7wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-43.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4212…f0d3backed The Huns Esports36c1,249$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.08633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-45.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked The Huns Esports34c1,182$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40053835.9%193 W · 345 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed The Huns Esports34c1,011$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.122,73230.3%829 W · 1,903 L-120.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-30.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed Rare Atom65c929.35$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.6450055.2%276 W · 224 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba4f…b37bbacked The Huns Esports36c868.9$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.82222.7%5 W · 17 L-4.4wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-59.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked The Huns Esports35c768.99$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.8422353.8%120 W · 103 L+0.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f3…5402backed Rare Atom34c747.05$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.054250%21 W · 21 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbadb…31a7backed Rare Atom48c704.77$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.0215949.7%79 W · 80 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57ce…aceebacked The Huns Esports36c693.36$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.863135.5%11 W · 20 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-35.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked The Huns Esports30c669.03$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.844,02236.4%1,466 W · 2,556 L-208.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Rare Atom41c650$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.755,95437.7%2,247 W · 3,707 L+77.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56bf…0852backed The Huns Esports32c619.11$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.253234.4%11 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed The Huns Esports35c600$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2081,05149%515 W · 536 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1614…0bedbacked The Huns Esports31c597.7$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.0111938.7%46 W · 73 L-10.1wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-16.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc0e4…dd38backed The Huns Esports56c578.16$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.6251756.3%291 W · 226 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeef6…cd4cbacked Rare Atom43c577.85$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.4318448.4%89 W · 95 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed51…eb3bbacked The Huns Esports35c570$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.52025%5 W · 15 L-4.3wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-56.6%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked The Huns Esports43c562.49$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.2731247.8%149 W · 163 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked The Huns Esports50c553.79$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.068,13350.3%4,091 W · 4,042 L+169.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f8e…0c69backed The Huns Esports41c550.05$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.5233737.7%127 W · 210 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x489b…a6ecbacked The Huns Esports37c541$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.175038%19 W · 31 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8726…0f36backed Rare Atom63c540.99$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.1776254.9%418 W · 344 L+17.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30dc…f26ebacked The Huns Esports52c527.78$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.3416836.3%61 W · 107 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked The Huns Esports33c507$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.6959134.7%205 W · 386 L-14.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e6f…3be7backed The Huns Esports37c456$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.7210333%34 W · 69 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2bb…bd8ebacked The Huns Esports45c451.44$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.3323935.6%85 W · 154 L-19.5wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-39.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed The Huns Esports49c447.98$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.381,34644.1%594 W · 752 L+45.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Rare Atom50c441.43$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.3442241.9%177 W · 245 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed The Huns Esports43c429.61$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.094,16550.9%2,119 W · 2,046 L+70.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b25…7a69backed The Huns Esports34c417.55$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.953023.3%7 W · 23 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-23.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x66b1…6b9dbacked Rare Atom64c411.89$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.184311.6%5 W · 38 L-4.7wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-13%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Rare Atom49c409$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.792,44246.8%1,142 W · 1,300 L-54.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab61…fb2bbacked The Huns Esports75c401.15$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…869ebacked The Huns Esports35c396$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.64944.9%22 W · 27 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed The Huns Esports50c375$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.185,46631.5%1,722 W · 3,744 L-400.1wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2e9b…3f82backed The Huns Esports33c374.59$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+37.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked The Huns Esports66c374$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.91,98442.2%838 W · 1,146 L-74.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfe3…ec6fbacked The Huns Esports36c353.3$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.19933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-44.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee83…bc59backed The Huns Esports34c348$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.322955.2%16 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe49d…cc93backed The Huns Esports37c342$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.54520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-71.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed The Huns Esports36c325$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11712443.5%54 W · 70 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfcc7…4d38backed Rare Atom65c310.93$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.8313869.6%96 W · 42 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf404…daaabacked Rare Atom37c300$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18911733.3%39 W · 78 L-9.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-25.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb21b…88f9backed Rare Atom62c296.9$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.8252155.1%287 W · 234 L+17.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3652…c3e0backed Rare Atom37c285.99$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.33425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-31.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85ae…5399backed The Huns Esports37c278$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.862832.1%9 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-26.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6326…6329backed The Huns Esports58c273.36$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.5562342.7%266 W · 357 L-9.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Rare Atom58c260.85$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.423,37545.7%1,542 W · 1,833 L-84.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b6b…acabbacked The Huns Esports44c258.5$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.764753.2%25 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86ca…bc47backed The Huns Esports34c254.11$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.57139.4%28 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked The Huns Esports36c252.61$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.9580534%274 W · 531 L-51.8wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-30.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked The Huns Esports40c251.68$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.522,63434.6%912 W · 1,722 L-204.7wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6983…88c3backed The Huns Esports36c246.12$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.9716141.6%67 W · 94 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed The Huns Esports36c243.16$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.2285043.1%366 W · 484 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe9b…cbe5backed The Huns Esports32c231.46$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.0745943.6%200 W · 259 L+10.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2957…b26abacked The Huns Esports31c224.28$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6924037.5%90 W · 150 L-17.9wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-26.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed The Huns Esports44c223.75$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.472,44545.4%1,109 W · 1,336 L-66.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5317…9a3bbacked The Huns Esports35c223.61$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.244445.5%20 W · 24 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4964…4fddbacked Rare Atom58c214.95$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.78955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick66cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7091…96f8backed Rare Atom64c200$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7210158.4%59 W · 42 L+7.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4b27…0635backed Rare Atom60c200$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8035751%182 W · 175 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc34…0953backed Rare Atom35c199.98$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.988645.3%39 W · 47 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa278…3369backed Rare Atom40c199.52$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.871275%9 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+28%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked The Huns Esports69c194.49$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.062,29343.3%994 W · 1,299 L-70.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf066…3349backed The Huns Esports51c191.91$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.678247.6%39 W · 43 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-23.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b32…62bdbacked The Huns Esports35c189.2$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.22425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-45.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04b7…7491backed Rare Atom63c187.81$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.4914059.3%83 W · 57 L+12.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+16.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x71e7…1082backed The Huns Esports65c182.29$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.38742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c9d…cb94backed The Huns Esports35c180.29$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.12725.9%7 W · 20 L-3.2wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-47.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed The Huns Esports41c180$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.0313442.5%57 W · 77 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8213…711cbacked The Huns Esports57c179.99$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.26765.7%44 W · 23 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked The Huns Esports38c175.56$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.081,59851.6%824 W · 774 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedd0…b03abacked The Huns Esports36c172$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.921225%3 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked The Huns Esports34c170$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.81,18448%568 W · 616 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed The Huns Esports58c167.42$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.9192231.2%288 W · 634 L-63.6wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-35.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa005…abb1backed The Huns Esports34c166.39$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.2323952.7%126 W · 113 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb66c…a0f5backed Rare Atom69c164.82$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.8213567.4%91 W · 44 L+19.1wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+22.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x282c…dd8ebacked The Huns Esports67c159.37$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1071163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick71cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Rare Atom68c153.75$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.9618245.1%82 W · 100 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed The Huns Esports33c150$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5071449.3%352 W · 362 L-2.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5edf…7139backed Rare Atom68c147.64$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.643661.1%22 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x40c2…aef7backed The Huns Esports28c146.87$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.55940.7%24 W · 35 L+0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56ac…f2eabacked Rare Atom69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.938760.9%53 W · 34 L+6.9wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c47…2e55backed The Huns Esports49c142.85$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7025945.9%119 W · 140 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked The Huns Esports71c140.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10074251.1%379 W · 363 L+28.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x03c5…5f61backed The Huns Esports36c138.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8624032.5%78 W · 162 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x920a…29e0backed The Huns Esports33c137.24$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.299050%45 W · 45 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed The Huns Esports31c136.2$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8120945.5%95 W · 114 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.