Mls · resolved market
Will Toronto FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x747ef54b9b0a4e8bfb18dc1ab28accabc5df93614ee25bf5b70b610ccbffe9c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,052
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,375
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,052 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f59…21cbbacked No | 33c | 1,582$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Yes | 50c | 1,139$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.36 | 166 | 57.2%95 W · 71 L | +12.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked No | 24c | 996.87$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.12 | 132 | 28.8%38 W · 94 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed No | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 43c | 695.6$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.49 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb30d…5cf1backed Yes | 75c | 668.21$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5428…e46abacked Yes | 72c | 556.88$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff1a…4475backed No | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…1caabacked Yes | 28c | 461.29$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.29 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Yes | 49c | 404.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.38 | 229 | 46.7%107 W · 122 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c50…ef2cbacked Yes | 26c | 384.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 48c | 325.48$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.67 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Yes | 70c | 315.18$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.79 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -22%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed No | 67c | 291.91$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.38 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 65c | 286$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.1 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 66c | 275.15$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.55 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99a…388ebacked No | 50c | 244.1$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 70c | 235$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.45 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed No | 76c | 233.39$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.38 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 75c | 201.13$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.85 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc076…d987backed Yes | 77c | 200.05$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.05 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…d867backed Yes | 33c | 199.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 68c | 187$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.84 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 36c | 182.19$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.18 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 34c | 177.6$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.5 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…4b19backed Yes | 65c | 154.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 24c | 149.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.52 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 60c | 149.15$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.9 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb57d…ca49backed No | 74c | 129.85$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81ed…227dbacked No | 74c | 124.45$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…fde8backed No | 74c | 123.94$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 24c | 120.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.98 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c7…c6bdbacked Yes | 50c | 115$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30ce…fdcebacked No | 29c | 106.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 147 | 61.2%90 W · 57 L | +20.8wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Yes | 24c | 101.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.79 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 76c | 99.24$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.42 | 195 | 60%117 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed2b…d4eabacked Yes | 58c | 86.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 25c | 82.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.81 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed No | 75c | 75$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 206 | 60.7%125 W · 81 L | +19.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 27c | 74.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Yes | 62c | 65.34$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked Yes | 24c | 65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.44 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x928d…c482backed Yes | 50c | 61.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Yes | 46c | 60.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.65 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Yes | 50c | 58.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0972…a5f7backed No | 75c | 50.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 36c | 48.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed No | 75c | 48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 73c | 45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 74c | 43.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc45…c611backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x628d…a012backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96f4…b9debacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.48per pick | 36cpaid | +159.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 44c | 39.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 41c | 36.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…936dbacked No | 51c | 36.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab8…6eaabacked No | 38c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf87…cc46backed Yes | 49c | 34.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 52c | 33.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed No | 70c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 199 | 60.8%121 W · 78 L | +22.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdff2…2e27backed No | 74c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 75c | 29.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Yes | 60c | 28.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 76c | 26.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x756c…651bbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7a…bdb5backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9402…e673backed Yes | 80c | 17.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Toronto FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes end in a draw?this page
- Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-05-02?No won
- Will Toronto FC win on 2026-05-02?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.