World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or higher on May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x753f23f84c1ff3a2ce68e436a0c52c7735ad1def066eb0d18163542e85606200
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,020
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,395
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,020 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 40c | 2,422$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.73 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 16c | 763.11$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.58 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 667.72$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.37 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 29c | 645.46$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.97 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 65c | 626.69$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.69 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 23c | 441.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 67c | 366.05$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.14 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 79c | 316.07$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.41 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 28c | 311.54$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.78 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 77c | 309.42$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.21 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 18c | 280.07$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.47 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 67c | 263.03$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.03 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 5c | 259.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 76c | 232.08$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.45 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 41c | 224.81$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.28 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 222.35$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.27 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 70c | 206.29$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.1 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 60c | 198.08$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.83 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…6423backed Yes | 20c | 192.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 190.2$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 54c | 188.8$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.47 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb5…e19cbacked No | 63c | 187.95$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.09 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 65c | 187.89$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.47 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 44c | 170.61$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.26 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed No | 79c | 157.8$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 153.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 42c | 150$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.64 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 148.43$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 32c | 143.41$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.96 | 141 | 26.2%37 W · 104 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed Yes | 26c | 131.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c54…f0bbbacked Yes | 39c | 129.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 17c | 119.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 24c | 117.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 116.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 50c | 112.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.52 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe399…b921backed No | 66c | 104.08$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 53cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 47c | 103.61$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 77c | 103.53$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 68c | 102.01$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 101.32$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…c1b2backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae99…2ed5backed No | 71c | 99.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 67c | 99.21$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 86 | 72.1%62 W · 24 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 96.2$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 27c | 96.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 57c | 95.51$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb473…046ebacked Yes | 22c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 16c | 89.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 59c | 87.97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.82 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 69c | 87.58$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 64c | 79.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked Yes | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66bf…8625backed No | 75c | 74$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 60c | 70.96$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes | 28c | 70.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…06cbbacked Yes | 42c | 69.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 31c | 64.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 27c | 64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 23c | 63.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…190dbacked Yes | 49c | 61.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 69c | 57.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked Yes | 49c | 56.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 77c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x353f…1623backed Yes | 37c | 54.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 53.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17a8…3509backed Yes | 29c | 50.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…5411backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 21c | 49.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e1…8c69backed Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 72c | 45.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 53 | 83%44 W · 9 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31ea…46d5backed No | 65c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 29c | 44.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 68c | 44.68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 73c | 43.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 29c | 42.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2c…383abacked Yes | 47c | 42.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x068a…f8bdbacked Yes | 28c | 41.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 61c | 39.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 60c | 37.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…cc17backed Yes | 41c | 36.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe978…ab29backed No | 80c | 34.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 55c | 33.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 33c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 66c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…b752backed No | 65c | 30.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 53c | 30.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…c2eabacked No | 53c | 29.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa63f…a744backed No | 70c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 75c | 26.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf910…5912backed No | 77c | 25.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or higher on May 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.