TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or higher on May 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,020
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,395

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,020 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbda1…827fbacked Yes40c2,422$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$975.734922.4%11 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-39.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes16c763.11$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.5823723.2%55 W · 182 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No77c667.72$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.3736055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes29c645.46$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.972832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No65c626.69$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.694856.3%27 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes23c441.7$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11fc…8262backed No67c366.05$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.142544%11 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No79c316.07$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.4112040.8%49 W · 71 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+27.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes28c311.54$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.782020%4 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-49.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed No77c309.42$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.214358.1%25 W · 18 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+27.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes18c280.07$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4710733.6%36 W · 71 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No67c263.03$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.037560%45 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes5c259.63$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2116934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No76c232.08$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.4521844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes41c224.81$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.286336.5%23 W · 40 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No76c222.35$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.2739952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No70c206.29$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.112249.2%60 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No60c198.08$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.837058.6%41 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e6…6423backed Yes20c192.38$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.984045%18 W · 22 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No79c190.2$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.535258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No54c188.8$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.474761.7%29 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdeb5…e19cbacked No63c187.95$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.09650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No65c187.89$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.473961.5%24 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes44c170.61$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.2610320.4%21 W · 82 L-6.7wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f12…9424backed No79c157.8$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.61850%9 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-18.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes24c153.64$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3432639.3%128 W · 198 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ebb…405abacked Yes42c150$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.642142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No77c148.43$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.8440648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes32c143.41$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9614126.2%37 W · 104 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-26.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa200…27b0backed Yes26c131.15$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.546533.8%22 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c54…f0bbbacked Yes39c129.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes17c119.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2422111.3%25 W · 196 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick12cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes24c117.74$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.99520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-70.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes18c116.25$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1244138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes50c112.99$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.526330.2%19 W · 44 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe399…b921backed No66c104.08$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.04785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick53cpaid+65.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes47c103.61$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.538236.6%30 W · 52 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50d8…0a0ebacked No77c103.53$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.023565.7%23 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No68c102.01$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.944266.7%28 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No69c101.32$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.731152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a19…1e2ebacked Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+36.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5358…c1b2backed Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+90.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae99…2ed5backed No71c99.99$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes16c99.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163735.1%13 W · 24 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick24cpaid-3.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes35c99.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4514842.6%63 W · 85 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No67c99.21$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.528672.1%62 W · 24 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No79c96.2$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9414656.2%82 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes27c96.06$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+20.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6548…9108backed No57c95.51$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.3911053.6%59 W · 51 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb473…046ebacked Yes22c90$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes16c89.54$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3332748.6%159 W · 168 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No59c87.97$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.8239231.9%125 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No69c87.58$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.0824637.4%92 W · 154 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No64c79.03$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.685064%32 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa99…29afbacked Yes25c75$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.817236.1%26 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66bf…8625backed No75c74$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No60c70.96$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0713748.2%66 W · 71 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes28c70.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x476e…06cbbacked Yes42c69.65$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed Yes31c64.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010640.6%43 W · 63 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes27c64$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.512816.4%21 W · 107 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+67.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd23…fababacked Yes23c63.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.04333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb65e…190dbacked Yes49c61.41$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No69c57.53$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5526632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf875…814dbacked Yes49c56.94$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.76944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d70…cc5ebacked No77c55$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.652572%18 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x353f…1623backed Yes37c54.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.24per pick41cpaid-47.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No65c53.22$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4815356.2%86 W · 67 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17a8…3509backed Yes29c50.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151010%1 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d6…5411backed Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125646.4%26 W · 30 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes23c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-81.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes21c49.06$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.176462.5%40 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8e1…8c69backed Yes31c48.39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No72c45.14$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.575383%44 W · 9 L+5.7wins+0.11per pick72cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x31ea…46d5backed No65c45$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.75366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+39.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed Yes29c44.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.054418.2%8 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-34.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No68c44.68$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1714467.4%97 W · 47 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No73c43.08$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4718348.6%89 W · 94 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes29c42.95$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5512238.5%47 W · 75 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b2c…383abacked Yes47c42.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x068a…f8bdbacked Yes28c41.86$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75d3…3f0ebacked No61c39.82$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.661070%7 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked No60c37.74$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.057345.2%33 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb532…cc17backed Yes41c36.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe978…ab29backed No80c34.21$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+77.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No55c33.3$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.123268.8%22 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes33c33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.892536%9 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No66c31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6414445.8%66 W · 78 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb664…b752backed No65c30.89$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.89250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-22.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No53c30.16$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.187951.9%41 W · 38 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No65c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.510864.8%70 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No76c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.218762.6%117 W · 70 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes40c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128235.4%29 W · 53 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes48c29.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.330%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x10f4…c2eabacked No53c29.89$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.91742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa63f…a744backed No70c29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No62c27$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2626355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No75c26.76$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6844428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xf910…5912backed No77c25.96$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.974100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.