TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,710
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,112

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,710 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5f21…b376backed Yes20c701.83$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.7227521.8%60 W · 215 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No40c560.31$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.422355.6%124 W · 99 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbb4…4e22backed Yes28c531.08$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.081369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+53.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed No35c449.2$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.7423723.2%55 W · 182 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No42c425.75$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.8131152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No68c385.73$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.7921844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes15c314.3$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.497020%14 W · 56 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No58c306.54$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.497560%45 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43e0…28f0backed Yes32c303.95$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.252638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No44c271.33$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.784856.3%27 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No72c257$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.4839952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes32c256.74$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.494358.1%25 W · 18 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+27.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ab9…bedebacked No79c253.39$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200450%2 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-28.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No65c206.3$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.3212249.2%60 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc8b…b15ebacked No71c204.28$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.582920.7%6 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-0.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes16c202.9$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.411421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+102.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d32…f958backed No56c197.99$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa200…27b0backed No42c196.2$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.046533.8%22 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No76c190.2$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.735258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes35c189.41$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.7110733.6%36 W · 71 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked No10c186.25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.635916.9%10 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes21c180.47$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.034037.5%15 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes28c177.7$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.172832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes27c171.61$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.0940648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No64c165.81$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.673961.5%24 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No29c161.1$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9913155.7%73 W · 58 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5358…c1b2backed Yes25c150$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.131241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+90.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe587…dc56backed Yes78c149.99$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.25580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+44.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No67c149.8$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.615356.2%86 W · 67 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No73c137.33$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.626462.5%40 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked Yes22c136.95$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.427345.2%33 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No62c133.87$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.4524637.4%92 W · 154 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes14c133.75$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.7944138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No72c130.71$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.117582.7%62 W · 13 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick76cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c129.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.911936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb90b…ca12backed Yes67c123.29$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.291353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc60c…cdeebacked No10c114.4$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4430%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2451…09fabacked Yes21c113.92$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.92728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+46.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes20c111.47$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.0512816.4%21 W · 107 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+67.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb64a…0c47backed No75c110.02$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.93333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick72cpaid-49.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes22c109.8$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.685131.4%16 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-1.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes17c107.73$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.423016.7%5 W · 25 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-49%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes13c106.58$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.5939231.9%125 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe41…556cbacked Yes47c105.28$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.28560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+35.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No60c103.8$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.6414656.2%82 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c52…0a0fbacked Yes59c101.46$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.462100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a19…1e2ebacked Yes20c100$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+36.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes29c100$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.853943.6%17 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5264…9a63backed Yes22c99.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.991330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23d8…f6b9backed No77c99.99$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.99650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes16c95.25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.9722111.3%25 W · 196 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick12cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32e0…3884backed Yes13c83.26$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+278.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No73c82.89$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.5132748.6%159 W · 168 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes20c82.89$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.5926632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes17c81.25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.5118035.6%64 W · 116 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed Yes35c80.5$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.513360.6%20 W · 13 L+5.4wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+48.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No75c80$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.818762.6%117 W · 70 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5eaa…3561backed Yes17c80$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.281250%6 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+57.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xac6c…ff17backed Yes39c78.01$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.351258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x156b…5808backed Yes73c75.69$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.691233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No79c70.95$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.113748.2%66 W · 71 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes75c70$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.51540%6 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-26.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes19c70$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.75749.1%28 W · 29 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7187…f08bbacked Yes31c67.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.77933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No32c65.9$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.394266.7%28 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed Yes18c65.64$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.9210640.6%43 W · 63 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed Yes66c60.18$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+50.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked No79c60$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.278739.1%34 W · 53 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde9b…467fbacked Yes70c60$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked No75c59.72$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.495141.2%21 W · 30 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes20c58$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.3616934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes69c57.97$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.97666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes25c57.11$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.779959.6%59 W · 40 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes18c55.35$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.3510039%39 W · 61 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+26.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4230…152ebacked No60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301650%8 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.54647.8%22 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes27c49.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.73742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes22c46$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.88450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+73.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No80c45$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.855945.8%27 W · 32 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed Yes23c45$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.654418.2%8 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-34.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa94d…cdffbacked Yes38c44.83$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.62862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+30.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No75c44.68$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3114467.4%97 W · 47 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No70c42.55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8918348.6%89 W · 94 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x859c…6eafbacked No51c41.5$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.126224.2%15 W · 47 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6300…41adbacked Yes32c41.16$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.16742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes28c39.6$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.643930.8%12 W · 27 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-18.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3164…3c65backed No78c37.29$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.063666.7%24 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf10e…4308backed Yes46c36.67$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.673154.8%17 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No64c36.25$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2618669.4%129 W · 57 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2a1…4ca0backed Yes47c35.33$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.711450%7 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+20.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked Yes49c34.97$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.973545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No73c34.39$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0232639.3%128 W · 198 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No55c33.47$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.444428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x1f12…9424backed Yes35c33.22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.521850%9 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-18.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe978…ab29backed Yes33c31.45$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.154100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+77.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked No71c30.34$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.465756.1%32 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No65c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.510864.8%70 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No48c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.45345.3%24 W · 29 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No65c28.27$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.471425.6%8 W · 134 L-27.2wins-0.19per pick25cpaid-58.7%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No78c26.56$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7916254.3%88 W · 74 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.