World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a22d75bed74abec7882b7dd37df5a493179aecbe635a2656a34309fb19afc2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,112
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 701.83$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.72 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 40c | 560.31$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.4 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb4…4e22backed Yes | 28c | 531.08$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.08 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 35c | 449.2$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.74 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 42c | 425.75$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.81 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 68c | 385.73$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.79 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 15c | 314.3$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.49 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 58c | 306.54$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.49 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e0…28f0backed Yes | 32c | 303.95$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.25 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 44c | 271.33$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.78 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 257$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.48 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 32c | 256.74$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.49 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab9…bedebacked No | 79c | 253.39$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 65c | 206.3$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.32 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8b…b15ebacked No | 71c | 204.28$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.58 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 16c | 202.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.41 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +102.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d32…f958backed No | 56c | 197.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 42c | 196.2$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.04 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 190.2$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.7 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 35c | 189.41$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.71 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 10c | 186.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 21c | 180.47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.03 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 28c | 177.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.17 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 27c | 171.61$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.09 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 64c | 165.81$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.67 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 29c | 161.1$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…c1b2backed Yes | 25c | 150$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.13 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe587…dc56backed Yes | 78c | 149.99$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 149.8$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.6 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 73c | 137.33$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.62 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 22c | 136.95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.42 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 62c | 133.87$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.45 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 133.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.79 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 130.71$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.11 | 75 | 82.7%62 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 129.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb90b…ca12backed Yes | 67c | 123.29$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.29 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc60c…cdeebacked No | 10c | 114.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 21c | 113.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 20c | 111.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.05 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb64a…0c47backed No | 75c | 110.02$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 22c | 109.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.68 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 17c | 107.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.42 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 106.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.59 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…556cbacked Yes | 47c | 105.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 60c | 103.8$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.64 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c52…0a0fbacked Yes | 59c | 101.46$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.85 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.99 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 77c | 99.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 16c | 95.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.97 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…3884backed Yes | 13c | 83.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +278.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 82.89$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.51 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 20c | 82.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.59 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 81.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.51 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 35c | 80.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.51 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +5.4wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 75c | 80$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaa…3561backed Yes | 17c | 80$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac6c…ff17backed Yes | 39c | 78.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.35 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 73c | 75.69$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 79c | 70.95$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 19c | 70$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7187…f08bbacked Yes | 31c | 67.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.77 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 32c | 65.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 18c | 65.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.92 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 66c | 60.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 79c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.27 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9b…467fbacked Yes | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 75c | 59.72$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 20c | 58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.36 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 25c | 57.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.77 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 18c | 55.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.35 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4230…152ebacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 27c | 49.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.73 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 22c | 46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 80c | 45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 23c | 45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa94d…cdffbacked Yes | 38c | 44.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 44.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 70c | 42.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…6eafbacked No | 51c | 41.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6300…41adbacked Yes | 32c | 41.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 28c | 39.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 78c | 37.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 46c | 36.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 64c | 36.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a1…4ca0backed Yes | 47c | 35.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 49c | 34.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 34.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 33.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 35c | 33.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe978…ab29backed Yes | 33c | 31.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 71c | 30.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 65c | 28.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 142 | 5.6%8 W · 134 L | -27.2wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 78c | 26.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or higher on May 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.