World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8070db5ab11bf1cbf94da073b56567197a2b516cca98d1a03e97be350974ea65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,039
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,363
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,039 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 58c | 1,081$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.77 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 37c | 893.08$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.7 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 8c | 850.37$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.33 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 597.12$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.68 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…d770backed Yes | 51c | 549.19$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.81 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 47cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 546.33$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.45 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…c1b2backed Yes | 38c | 370.91$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.71 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 331.16$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.87 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 49c | 272.71$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.91 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 54c | 260.44$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.1 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 56c | 254.85$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.49 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 26c | 241.59$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.95 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 58c | 231.97$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.99 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 42c | 204.98$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.99 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 62c | 204.09$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.96 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 62c | 198.08$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.09 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 56c | 197.86$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.64 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed Yes | 18c | 194.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43e0…28f0backed Yes | 49c | 193.16$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 44c | 190.2$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.27 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 63c | 181.3$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c54…f0bbbacked Yes | 55c | 180.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 41c | 180.25$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.16 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 45c | 177.58$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.74 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 35c | 170$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 168.86$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.52 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 64c | 155.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.01 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 66c | 150.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 59c | 149.44$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.77 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 30c | 140$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 23c | 127.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 36c | 126.68$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.83 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 13c | 121.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 141 | 26.2%37 W · 104 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 42c | 119$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 77c | 115$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 58c | 110.37$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.04 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 39c | 110$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 73c | 109.84$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb90b…ca12backed Yes | 55c | 108.48$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 43c | 107.24$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.74 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe399…b921backed No | 51c | 105.55$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.54 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 53cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 63c | 103.8$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 11c | 103$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 56c | 100.97$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4204…165abacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 55c | 99.97$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8090…27e5backed No | 61c | 98.16$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 45c | 94.66$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.52 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 90.85$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 37c | 90.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.37 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 90$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 43c | 88.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 45c | 82.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed Yes | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 46c | 80$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.94 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 57c | 75.09$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 66c | 72.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 60c | 70.95$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 42c | 70.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 54c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 44c | 68.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7187…f08bbacked Yes | 35c | 67.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 45c | 64.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 36c | 61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed Yes | 43c | 60.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…c045backed Yes | 55c | 59.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 44c | 57.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 37c | 55.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…df0fbacked No | 64c | 54.28$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf3…ca4abacked Yes | 25c | 53.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…190dbacked Yes | 38c | 52.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked No | 42c | 52.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 23c | 50.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 50.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaa…3561backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…8f69backed Yes | 41c | 49.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 41c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 56c | 46.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 66c | 46.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 43c | 46.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 53c | 45.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 38c | 45.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 58c | 44.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 86 | 72.1%62 W · 24 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 56c | 44.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 59c | 44.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 44c | 44.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 33c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 43.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x04c5…c2c8backed Yes | 39c | 43.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 49c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 49c | 40.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c8…f565backed Yes | 43c | 40.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or higher on May 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.