Asian League · resolved market
Spread: Al Hilal Saudi Club (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76264380947b965c2c1c34423bc10ff07afe093a0aab647dfeecec83ae24896e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Al Hilal Saudi Clubof Al Hilal Saudi Club, NEOM SC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $118,948
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $166,564
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,948 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Al Hilal Saudi Club | 60c | 47,793$28,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,239.81 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked NEOM SC | 40c | 7,000$2,765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,765.09 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed NEOM SC | 40c | 5,924$2,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,373.69 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked NEOM SC | 41c | 5,016$2,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,078.55 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed NEOM SC | 42c | 3,350$1,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,407.5 | 139 | 56.1%78 W · 61 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed NEOM SC | 44c | 3,200$1,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,408 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed NEOM SC | 42c | 3,145$1,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,333.27 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed NEOM SC | 40c | 2,923$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,159.96 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked NEOM SC | 41c | 2,162$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878.21 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…abcebacked NEOM SC | 43c | 1,977$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed NEOM SC | 42c | 1,310$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 138 | 49.3%68 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed NEOM SC | 41c | 1,200$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed NEOM SC | 38c | 1,184$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.92 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Al Hilal Saudi Club | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…017fbacked Al Hilal Saudi Club | 57c | 999.99$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.7wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed NEOM SC | 40c | 897.44$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.25 | 117 | 64.1%75 W · 42 L | +11.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed NEOM SC | 41c | 800$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328 | 211 | 52.1%110 W · 101 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed NEOM SC | 47c | 800$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed NEOM SC | 41c | 664$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.24 | 131 | 54.2%71 W · 60 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed NEOM SC | 41c | 607.98$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.24 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked NEOM SC | 41c | 600$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Al Hilal Saudi Club | 57c | 588.73$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.11 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed NEOM SC | 43c | 526.47$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.38 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked NEOM SC | 41c | 520$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.2 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed NEOM SC | 40c | 498.77$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.14 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed NEOM SC | 28c | 457.09$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.99 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed NEOM SC | 44c | 443.57$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.87 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0650…865cbacked NEOM SC | 44c | 435.71$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed NEOM SC | 41c | 403.34$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.53 | 153 | 49.7%76 W · 77 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed NEOM SC | 37c | 381.13$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.73 | 158 | 26.6%42 W · 116 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked NEOM SC | 42c | 371.19$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.8 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc52…dfcebacked NEOM SC | 41c | 370$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.7 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed NEOM SC | 44c | 343.56$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 127 | 41.7%53 W · 74 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed NEOM SC | 41c | 326.94$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.05 | 150 | 50.7%76 W · 74 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked NEOM SC | 41c | 303.98$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.63 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed NEOM SC | 41c | 280$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.8 | 161 | 54.7%88 W · 73 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed NEOM SC | 39c | 261.69$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.05 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed NEOM SC | 41c | 245.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.47 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x697e…9904backed NEOM SC | 42c | 235.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -4.6wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed NEOM SC | 43c | 232.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked NEOM SC | 40c | 203$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 164 | 54.3%89 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed NEOM SC | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 214 | 49.1%105 W · 109 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed NEOM SC | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 162 | 55.6%90 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b76…c036backed NEOM SC | 25c | 132$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Al Hilal Saudi Club | 65c | 125.8$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…fd36backed Al Hilal Saudi Club | 60c | 116.67$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed NEOM SC | 43c | 113$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked NEOM SC | 39c | 104.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…862dbacked NEOM SC | 44c | 91.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -7.4wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Al Hilal Saudi Club | 64c | 89$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65af…df77backed Al Hilal Saudi Club | 57c | 88.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…aa08backed Al Hilal Saudi Club | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…c02abacked NEOM SC | 15c | 84.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed NEOM SC | 28c | 83.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0aba…1910backed Al Hilal Saudi Club | 60c | 74.4$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed NEOM SC | 41c | 67.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed NEOM SC | 43c | 67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Al Hilal Saudi Club | 55c | 65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…de1bbacked Al Hilal Saudi Club | 71c | 58.2$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked NEOM SC | 29c | 51.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 75 | 74.7%56 W · 19 L | +13.6wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed NEOM SC | 42c | 47.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed NEOM SC | 42c | 47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Al Hilal Saudi Club | 56c | 42.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Al Hilal Saudi Club | 72c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 123 | 62.6%77 W · 46 L | +17.0wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked NEOM SC | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c91…af73backed Al Hilal Saudi Club | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1db…fdb0backed Al Hilal Saudi Club | 56c | 33.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Al Hilal Saudi Club | 69c | 32.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb630…e38ebacked NEOM SC | 34c | 31.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed NEOM SC | 43c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 115 | 57.4%66 W · 49 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Al Hilal Saudi Club | 56c | 27.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed5…2aa3backed Al Hilal Saudi Club | 61c | 21.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…390dbacked Al Hilal Saudi Club | 59c | 18.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e71…57a3backed Al Hilal Saudi Club | 58c | 18.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7468…3d24backed Al Hilal Saudi Club | 58c | 18.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Al Hilal Saudi Club | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca0c…b9b6backed Al Hilal Saudi Club | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Al Hilal Saudi Club (-1.5)this page
- Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. NEOM SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. NEOM SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. NEOM SC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. NEOM SC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. NEOM SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Al Hilal Saudi Club (-2.5)NEOM SC won
- Spread: NEOM SC (-1.5)Al Hilal Saudi Club won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.