MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7673dd0878a7718e546a9bb269eac3f55b1ab22f4bc33a3a142b0874018585e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,136
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,136 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 54c | 3,111$1,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,664.81 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 47c | 3,030$1,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,616.68 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…bc54backed Under | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 51c | 884.41$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.36 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 50c | 414.83$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.42 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 48c | 392.31$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.31 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 940 | 34.3%322 W · 618 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 327.49$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.57 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 46c | 270.64$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.16 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 42c | 237.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 49c | 205$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fe…6a33backed Over | 51c | 199.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 56c | 191.24$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.98 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 47c | 160.69$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.62 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 50c | 158.43$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.43 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 52c | 157.16$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Over | 60c | 153.15$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.26 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe67…dd7ebacked Under | 49c | 151.75$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.83 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd751…0fedbacked Over | 49c | 146.21$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa928…bbaabacked Over | 57c | 125$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.75 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 49c | 111.64$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.37 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 56c | 107.49$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 43c | 96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c97…82adbacked Over | 52c | 94.23$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 48c | 79.52$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 53c | 71.84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 56c | 70.17$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 51c | 62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 49c | 61.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 49c | 59.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87b8…9c13backed Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 51c | 48.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 57c | 42.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Over | 52c | 41.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Under | 42c | 40.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 48c | 38.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 53c | 37.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 59 | 67.8%40 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Over | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 41c | 27.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 169 | 47.3%80 W · 89 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fee…3d67backed Over | 51c | 25.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c8…d506backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 72c | 21.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 50c | 20.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d7…f0e9backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 174 | 50.6%88 W · 86 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Over | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-5.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.