Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76b71a203dbe1690d89f08229baec93dca01669ef2989884ce8eb3576b8f188e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,952
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,952 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 42c | 862.34$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.34 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 53c | 856.21$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.21 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 33c | 496.43$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.13 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 361.68$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.07 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 4c | 325.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 14c | 256.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1c43…1608backed No | 60c | 213.33$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 38c | 191.25$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.35 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 52c | 174.74$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.56 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 13c | 159.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 23c | 156.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 11c | 154.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 8c | 152.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 61c | 150.82$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.26 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 58c | 142$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.02 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed Yes | 58c | 136.14$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.08 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 39c | 125.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.11 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 50c | 115.17$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.87 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 77c | 114.58$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 71c | 112.37$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 28c | 109.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 29c | 106$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 15c | 101.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 58c | 96$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.68 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 15c | 90.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…e4babacked Yes | 48c | 90$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 71c | 90$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 57c | 88.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed No | 58c | 81.2$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 21c | 79.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20d7…2485backed Yes | 46c | 75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.75 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 40c | 74.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 73.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 18c | 70.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 48c | 70.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.31 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 29c | 62.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 20c | 62.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 40c | 60.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 54c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 36c | 59.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 35c | 56.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 56.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 55c | 56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 32c | 55.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 55.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 55c | 48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 44c | 42.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 56c | 41.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 41c | 39.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 45c | 39.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 35c | 38.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 59c | 37.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 38c | 32.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 31.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 66c | 30.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 45c | 29.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…b4b5backed Yes | 39c | 29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 70c | 28.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 59c | 25.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 68c | 22.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7968…615abacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 68c | 14.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.