TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on August 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,065
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,057

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,065 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes37c1,101$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4101,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked No50c595.43$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.672042.2%304 W · 416 L+26.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes3c454.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.021,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No73c436.53$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.971,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes12c393.3$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.553,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6fb…c038backed Yes39c330$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.1943932.8%144 W · 295 L+20.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No49c293.99$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No63c218.97$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.064,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes27c211.98$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0748331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes25c199.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5027335.9%98 W · 175 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95d3…6effbacked No52c194.58$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.2231748.6%154 W · 163 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No62c175$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.092,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No63c167$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.791,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed29…3848backed Yes44c161.95$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.95028%14 W · 36 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+47.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No68c144.09$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.062,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x567a…b24cbacked Yes43c140$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.212927.1%35 W · 94 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes50c138.94$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.521,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No61c136.61$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.833,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No69c129.37$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.114,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked Yes38c128$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.331,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No60c125.04$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.414,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9016…e4babacked Yes42c117.15$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.25135.3%18 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+77.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes26c116.54$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3013746%63 W · 74 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No60c113.49$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.651,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b6e…5848backed Yes44c112$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.624141.1%99 W · 142 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No62c107$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.7189557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8688…27fbbacked Yes23c101.63$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.334245.2%19 W · 23 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+17.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes51c98.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5064446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No56c96$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.242,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No61c95.65$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.3177151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No75c95.58$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.951,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes43c95.31$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0120739.1%81 W · 126 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes41c82.31$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7547239.8%188 W · 284 L+31.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+35.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes24c81.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.723,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes50c80$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4046148.8%225 W · 236 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No62c75.76$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.723,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes31c74.76$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20d7…2485backed Yes41c68$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.683116.1%5 W · 26 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-53.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No74c66.7$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.255,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x107c…ab15backed Yes46c65.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.13917.9%7 W · 32 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-29.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf13b…9ef9backed Yes47c64.1$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301520%3 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-56.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes40c63.44$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.325,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No74c63$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.389,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No59c62.53$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7728163.7%179 W · 102 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No74c59.99$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.52,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No69c58.93$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1363323.9%151 W · 482 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x885f…7bf9backed Yes51c57.69$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4254656.4%308 W · 238 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No69c55.45$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.362,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x44ec…082cbacked Yes40c52.4$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.037035.7%25 W · 45 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7eb5…9400backed No53c51.3$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.1152758.8%310 W · 217 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a56…be30backed No75c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.546452.2%242 W · 222 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8192…871ebacked No61c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.57749.4%38 W · 39 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2066926.2%175 W · 494 L-1.7wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No57c48$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.563,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No79c44.89$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.642,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ddb…6a89backed No53c41.92$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.738454.9%211 W · 173 L+26.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked No64c40.56$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4921272.6%154 W · 58 L+22.8wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+21.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No69c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.55,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9cf…b443backed Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106728.4%19 W · 48 L-8.8wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-40.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No80c39.13$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.012,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd1c…3f79backed No49c37.49$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1249359%291 W · 202 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked No54c35$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.11,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x15ad…d17abacked Yes49c30.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.911729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-39%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes44c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.212530.4%38 W · 87 L-8.4wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa047…4ffabacked No65c28.83$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1376059.2%450 W · 310 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29ef…dddabacked Yes50c27.01$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4318247.3%86 W · 96 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-11.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes38c26.39$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.077,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No60c25.56$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xe188…c1d0backed No51c25.39$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.397856.4%44 W · 34 L+7.9wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+22%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8845…360ebacked Yes50c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.516935.5%60 W · 109 L-34.5wins-0.20per pick56cpaid-36.4%equal weight30-0.18 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No75c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1571057.9%411 W · 299 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e5e…35c9backed No57c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6917350.9%88 W · 85 L-13.2wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-14.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb924…0803backed No62c24$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1226067.3%175 W · 85 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No53c23.66$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.14,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64be…c653backed Yes49c22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.784938.8%19 W · 30 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.794,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked No61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.81,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked No62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.639768.8%273 W · 124 L+11.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf361…08f6backed Yes50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104763.8%30 W · 17 L+4.4wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c19.98$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.391,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No71c18.77$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.511,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf6f6…0e74backed No73c17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.5719861.1%121 W · 77 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28f5…dbe4backed No69c14.84$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.642045%9 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.