TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Timberwolves vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 108.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,808
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,025

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,808 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbce5…02f1backed Under50c1,000$500 inWon+$50018651.6%96 W · 90 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Over50c819.65$410 inLost-$409.8356646.5%263 W · 303 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under50c454.98$227 inWon+$228.232,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under46c270.01$124 inWon+$145.75,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Over51c266.92$136 inLost-$136.131,15153.7%618 W · 533 L-41.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Over50c250$125 inLost-$12544740.7%182 W · 265 L-27.5wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9244…3d46backed Under50c194$97 inWon+$97450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked Over49c184.46$90 inLost-$90.399546.3%44 W · 51 L-11.2wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-24.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5cee…dfadbacked Over57c171.08$97 inLost-$97.4213655.9%76 W · 60 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d87…4e0dbacked Over50c150.35$75 inLost-$75.1834247.7%163 W · 179 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a76…b30fbacked Over47c53.65$25 inLost-$25.4621642.1%91 W · 125 L-15.6wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-15.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0bc4…07e7backed Over49c47.48$23 inLost-$23.274742.6%20 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc450…2eaabacked Over49c39.76$19 inLost-$19.391758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae94…7efbbacked Under50c39.39$20 inWon+$19.758754.7%321 W · 266 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Under53c30$16 inWon+$14.137753.8%203 W · 174 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf09d…d23fbacked Over77c28.95$22 inLost-$22.1910651.9%55 W · 51 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.