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NBA · resolved market

Timberwolves vs. Pistons: O/U 214.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,133
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,426

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,133 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbcb8…2f90backed Over55c530.73$292 inWon+$238.838844.3%39 W · 49 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under45c498.56$225 inLost-$224.989,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce27…8a7dbacked Under52c139.34$73 inLost-$72.8513441%55 W · 79 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e29…9e66backed Over21c129.09$27 inWon+$102.0450241.2%207 W · 295 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe93…3638backed Over47c100$47 inWon+$534847.9%23 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Under78c88.8$69 inLost-$69.0911354.9%62 W · 51 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabce…2f87backed Over50c72.09$36 inWon+$36.0518844.7%84 W · 104 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38c4…7c65backed Over47c68$32 inWon+$36.3829556.6%167 W · 128 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x688d…9417backed Over49c59.54$29 inWon+$30.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Under51c51.43$26 inLost-$26.231,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1d7…d31abacked Over42c50$21 inWon+$2921640.3%87 W · 129 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+43.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Under58c39.68$23 inLost-$23.0134255.6%190 W · 152 L+28.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+36%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6d6f…7135backed Under54c35.93$19 inLost-$19.256144.3%27 W · 34 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ec7…4f0ebacked Under51c23.02$12 inLost-$11.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under53c20.32$11 inLost-$10.8752230.3%158 W · 364 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Under63c16.33$10 inLost-$10.2415663.5%99 W · 57 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+10.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdf7f…3f13backed Under80c16.25$13 inLost-$12.941752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.