NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pistons (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf731f87c1819c6993dbb3320c0560b8574c0572266a8127e393b389ef78e2ae8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Pistons, Timberwolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,426
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,426 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Timberwolves | 56c | 2,773$1,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,209.12 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2102…f516backed Pistons | 1c | 1,881$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pistons | 40c | 1,487$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.39 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f30…3aeebacked Timberwolves | 65c | 1,008$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.73 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ff…f0c4backed Pistons | 42c | 983.2$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.27 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Pistons | 41c | 933.78$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.56 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Pistons | 42c | 353.45$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.45 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Pistons | 47c | 307.1$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.87 | 369 | 49.6%183 W · 186 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Timberwolves | 53c | 289.58$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.1 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x503a…860abacked Timberwolves | 60c | 210.41$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.51 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Pistons | 46c | 164.66$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.68 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb743…c116backed Timberwolves | 60c | 162.85$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.25 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -34%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Pistons | 40c | 155.36$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.14 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Pistons | 18c | 139.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Pistons | 31c | 133.65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.07 | 342 | 55.6%190 W · 152 L | +28.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +36%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…4961backed Timberwolves | 64c | 125$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Timberwolves | 60c | 117.86$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.07 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Timberwolves | 50c | 113.27$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.55 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Timberwolves | 69c | 94.85$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 274 | 63.5%174 W · 100 L | +34.8wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Timberwolves | 61c | 79.71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…b652backed Pistons | 21c | 76.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 266 | 39.8%106 W · 160 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x796d…9551backed Timberwolves | 69c | 72.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Timberwolves | 54c | 71.51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.17 | 377 | 53.8%203 W · 174 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x104b…ed6bbacked Pistons | 47c | 50.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ba…b99abacked Timberwolves | 55c | 50.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…51dbbacked Pistons | 39c | 49.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -8.7wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Pistons | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Timberwolves | 56c | 21.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 73 | 82.2%60 W · 13 L | +18.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Pistons | 58c | 21.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 667 | 32.4%216 W · 451 L | +41.8wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Timberwolves | 54c | 21.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pistons (-6.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-1.5)Timberwolves won
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Timberwolves won
- Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Daniss Jenkins: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Daniss Jenkins: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Jalen Duren: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Spread: Pistons (-1.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-3.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Pistons (-7.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. PistonsPistons won
- Timberwolves vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 108.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 109.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Pistons: O/U 214.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Pistons: O/U 216.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Pistons: O/U 219.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Pistons: O/U 221.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Pistons: O/U 222.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Pistons: O/U 223.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Pistons: O/U 224.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Pistons: O/U 225.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Pistons: O/U 226.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Pistons: O/U 229.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.