CS2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x783a8653574b26e981b0fe55254296f0bf0a49d0a88982ac938697e0ac8b4cef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85a4…9aabbacked Under | 73c | 2,100$1,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.99 | 70 | 54.3%38 W · 32 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Over | 27c | 2,045$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.14 | 5,095 | 55.1%2,805 W · 2,290 L | +119.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…1772backed Under | 71c | 740.22$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.03 | 537 | 46.2%248 W · 289 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf171…85febacked Over | 29c | 690.42$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Over | 31c | 363.89$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.41 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 19c | 349.3$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.35 | 174 | 31%54 W · 120 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -32%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Under | 70c | 247$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.46 | 5,341 | 31.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L | -390.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x611a…e171backed Under | 72c | 197.14$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…57e9backed Under | 76c | 129.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 1,489 | 58%863 W · 626 L | +65.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 20c | 117.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 3,259 | 50.3%1,639 W · 1,620 L | +98.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…fc49backed Under | 70c | 107.14$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 66c | 105$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 2,664 | 30.8%820 W · 1,844 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa89b…87a6backed Over | 30c | 100.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 117 | 67.5%79 W · 38 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 30c | 100.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 2,456 | 44.5%1,093 W · 1,363 L | -67.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed Over | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 608 | 38.2%232 W · 376 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3375…ba50backed Under | 72c | 99.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 80 | 63.8%51 W · 29 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Over | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,041 | 39.9%415 W · 626 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…e919backed Over | 21c | 91.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 107 | 25.2%27 W · 80 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 69c | 84$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc086…8128backed Under | 73c | 78.08$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 148 | 48.6%72 W · 76 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1b…3d70backed Over | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58c…56e3backed Under | 75c | 59.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 339 | 69.9%237 W · 102 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Over | 27c | 58.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 2,030 | 53.7%1,091 W · 939 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 21c | 57.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 1,003 | 55.7%559 W · 444 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 70c | 55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 406 | 35.7%145 W · 261 L | -33.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -31%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Under | 67c | 52.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 541 | 48.6%263 W · 278 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 28c | 44.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 2,798 | 37.6%1,051 W · 1,747 L | -138.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Over | 27c | 38.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x447f…f362backed Under | 67c | 25.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x724c…1521backed Under | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 98 | 62.2%61 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x050e…321fbacked Under | 73c | 19.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…4c25backed Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 74 | 75.7%56 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 4.5this page
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals PlayoffsVitality won
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 1 WinnerVitality won
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 2 WinnerVitality won
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 3 WinnerVitality won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Under won
- Map 1: Odd/Even Total Kills?Odd won
- Map 1: Odd/Even Total Rounds?Even won
- Map 2: Odd/Even Total Kills?Even won
- Map 3: Odd/Even Total Kills?Odd won
- Map 3: Odd/Even Total Rounds?Even won
- Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)Vitality won
- Map Handicap: VIT (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5)Vitality won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.