Us Politics · resolved market
Debt ceiling raised or suspended before June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78ebcf0b7c068ead1313b884536db575fb48f2e5cc5b12d510e51443942ff658
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $95,292
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,003
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,292 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x130a…b35abacked No | 68c | 31,412$21,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,051.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84b2…620fbacked Yes | 32c | 31,412$10,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,051.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 18c | 1,763$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.32 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 18c | 1,609$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,314.18 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed No | 75c | 1,424$1,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.22 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x361f…0fc2backed Yes | 38c | 1,268$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.14 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 4c | 1,100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 49c | 824.85$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.12 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 79c | 798.46$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.13 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed Yes | 17c | 677.25$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.54 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 661$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 71c | 650.76$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.51 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x880e…00fcbacked Yes | 53c | 627.43$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.47 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 36c | 575.9$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.05 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bb…fb35backed Yes | 32c | 488.5$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -89.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed No | 32c | 484.41$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.01 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 51c | 459.17$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.21 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9c…3b0dbacked Yes | 4c | 421.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 20c | 403.7$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.74 | 113 | 36.3%41 W · 72 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0f…5f71backed Yes | 4c | 344.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 315.63$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.67 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked No | 32c | 307$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.21 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +42%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 34c | 298.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked Yes | 49c | 283.45$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.39 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3835…7f72backed Yes | 20c | 254$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -7.2wins | -0.20per pick | 23cpaid | -92.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 37c | 230$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.68 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce3…f779backed Yes | 51c | 215.1$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.3 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7662…7930backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 102.14$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4076…04acbacked No | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 50c | 51.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc30c…6509backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +720.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…e7b7backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 51c | 49.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd65d…2d93backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked No | 44c | 44.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…f9a4backed Yes | 47c | 44.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ea…43d1backed Yes | 50c | 34.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c71…14a4backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad3…e05dbacked Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 47c | 28.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a19…643bbacked Yes | 50c | 28.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb538…0d60backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 42c | 24.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04d4…8124backed Yes | 50c | 22.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…8686backed No | 51c | 22.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae20…bdcfbacked Yes | 50c | 21.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6a…53a6backed Yes | 49c | 21.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03af…982dbacked No | 51c | 21.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 68c | 20.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe860…784bbacked No | 52c | 19.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e86…d223backed Yes | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.