NBA · resolved market
Spread: Clippers (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7922d76e30eff147fad198937e5fa92a37e6db64a3e394b18a54daa15b315878
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Clippersof Clippers, Nets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,334
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,691
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,334 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Clippers | 54c | 7,371$3,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,415.71 | 1,374 | 50.1%689 W · 685 L | +34.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Nets | 46c | 5,382$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500.19 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Clippers | 51c | 4,906$2,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,395.8 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Clippers | 52c | 4,744$2,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,255.02 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Nets | 49c | 4,364$2,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,142.3 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Nets | 50c | 2,135$1,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,067.6 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…a816backed Nets | 47c | 1,965$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920 | 173 | 44.5%77 W · 96 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Clippers | 52c | 1,918$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.27 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Nets | 44c | 1,786$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.71 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd56d…bd7dbacked Clippers | 56c | 1,786$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.71 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Nets | 44c | 1,371$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.2 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Nets | 46c | 1,200$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Nets | 49c | 999.97$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.99 | 807 | 37.7%304 W · 503 L | -33.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Clippers | 49c | 895$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.45 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nets | 42c | 802.6$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.4 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Nets | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Clippers | 51c | 409$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.41 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Nets | 49c | 409$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.41 | 406 | 48%195 W · 211 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Nets | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x190b…2f3abacked Nets | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Clippers | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…66abbacked Clippers | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Nets | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Clippers | 56c | 140.55$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.95 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Nets | 21c | 124.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d1…cacfbacked Clippers | 50c | 123.66$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Nets | 50c | 115.1$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.55 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66b5…b26dbacked Nets | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Nets | 50c | 99.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 522 | 46.6%243 W · 279 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked Clippers | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 522 | 42.7%223 W · 299 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Nets | 43c | 86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 238 | 45.4%108 W · 130 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Nets | 21c | 74.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bef…b7c2backed Nets | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Nets | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Nets | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Clippers | 51c | 40.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Nets | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7676…ada4backed Clippers | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Clippers | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 317 | 45.4%144 W · 173 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbd…6ffebacked Nets | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 90 | 42.2%38 W · 52 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Clippers (-4.5)this page
- Clippers vs. NetsClippers won
- Clippers vs. Nets: 1H MoneylineClippers won
- Clippers vs. Nets: 1H O/U 106.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Nets: O/U 211.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Nets: O/U 212.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Nets: O/U 213.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Nets: O/U 214.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Nets: O/U 215.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Nets: O/U 216.5Over won
- Clippers vs. Nets: O/U 217.5Over won
- Spread: Clippers (-2.5)Clippers won
- Spread: Clippers (-3.5)Clippers won
- Spread: Clippers (-5.5)Clippers won
- Spread: Clippers (-6.5)Clippers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.