TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Domantas Sabonis: Points O/U 14.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,871
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,385

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,871 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7462…3ac3backed Yes43c1,407$600 inLost-$6001323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-47.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed No56c915.3$509 inWon+$406.041,08563.6%690 W · 395 L+86.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0c05…fabfbacked No58c799.99$466 inWon+$3347673.7%56 W · 20 L+11.6wins+0.15per pick58cpaid+26.8%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x625c…af76backed Yes4c319.3$13 inLost-$1350%0 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b41…01c7backed Yes42c236.79$99 inLost-$99.3653839.4%212 W · 326 L-26.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa566…72debacked Yes46c219.3$100 inLost-$100850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No58c174.99$101 inWon+$73.590863.9%580 W · 328 L+80.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf348…e543backed Yes45c122.88$55 inLost-$55.32450%12 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89fa…6ab0backed Yes40c100$40 inLost-$401421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-31.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7205…3377backed No60c100$60 inWon+$4045657%260 W · 196 L+44.6wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+15.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0baf…4647backed Yes40c96.5$39 inLost-$38.6540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-19.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe15f…93d7backed No60c76.56$46 inWon+$30.6221672.2%156 W · 60 L+28.6wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+22.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No55c29$16 inWon+$13.051,78653.2%950 W · 836 L+52.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe768…b331backed No60c25$15 inWon+$1039864.3%256 W · 142 L+33.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+12.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked No56c20$11 inWon+$8.759141.8%247 W · 344 L-26.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5430…c1d3backed No59c18$11 inWon+$7.3822774.4%169 W · 58 L+22.5wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+15.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.