TailMyPicks
Market

NBA · resolved market

Kings vs. Pelicans: 1H Moneyline

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Pelicansof Kings, Pelicans
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,945
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,947

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,945 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Pelicans69c1,495$1,032 inWon+$463.4557760.5%349 W · 228 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Kings31c1,457$452 inLost-$451.6248956.4%276 W · 213 L+31.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe88b…fa5abacked Kings31c50$16 inLost-$15.543246.1%199 W · 233 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d99…934cbacked Pelicans71c39$28 inWon+$11.31650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0685…51c4backed Pelicans68c38$26 inWon+$12.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d41…6989backed Kings29c35$10 inLost-$10.15366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad0f…0e3cbacked Pelicans69c30$21 inWon+$9.27450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-27.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcece…d26ebacked Pelicans71c29$21 inWon+$8.41666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b92…3036backed Pelicans71c29$21 inWon+$8.414100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+91.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2882…3724backed Pelicans71c27$19 inWon+$7.83560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fe8…d748backed Pelicans71c23$16 inWon+$6.67450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e74…58e2backed Pelicans68c19$13 inWon+$6.08425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick63cpaid-63.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5fe1…14e5backed Pelicans71c19$13 inWon+$5.51633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.29per pick63cpaid-50.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6ebf…beaabacked Pelicans71c19$13 inWon+$5.51366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe98a…23f3backed Pelicans71c19$13 inWon+$5.51366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+65.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb59…3c6fbacked Pelicans68c18$12 inWon+$5.762100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick72cpaid+40.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b05…104bbacked Pelicans68c17$12 inWon+$5.44250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7613…8a5ebacked Pelicans68c17$12 inWon+$5.44366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a7…b444backed Pelicans68c17$12 inWon+$5.44425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-63.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa57…ffdbbacked Pelicans68c17$12 inWon+$5.442100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6831…08b7backed Pelicans68c16$11 inWon+$5.12650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f43…b022backed Pelicans71c16$11 inWon+$4.64333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-53.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22f1…4833backed Pelicans71c16$11 inWon+$4.64450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-31.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf33a…e4d5backed Pelicans71c15$11 inWon+$4.35560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-15.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.