TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Kings vs. Pelicans: O/U 232.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$29,177
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,196

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,177 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb45a…192cbacked Over44c15,000$6,600 inLost-$6,60054539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under55c12,560$6,935 inWon+$5,625.449,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82c2…ab0bbacked Over46c2,941$1,353 inLost-$1,352.86450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf1e…f1fdbacked Under54c2,589$1,398 inWon+$1,190.94450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under56c1,826$1,022 inWon+$803.363,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Under50c1,654$834 inWon+$820.162,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Under54c1,631$881 inWon+$750.4850754.2%275 W · 232 L+13.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under56c993$556 inWon+$436.922,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over47c778.37$363 inLost-$363.094,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Over46c765$352 inLost-$351.995651.5%492 W · 464 L+23.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2eed…85a9backed Over47c763.83$359 inLost-$35931455.1%173 W · 141 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Over47c720$338 inLost-$338.458951.3%302 W · 287 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under56c506.45$284 inWon+$222.93,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1015…c873backed Over47c420$197 inLost-$197.462744.5%279 W · 348 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x426f…e76bbacked Over47c418$196 inLost-$196.4617644.9%79 W · 97 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd23…e31fbacked Over49c382.5$187 inLost-$186.5147354.8%259 W · 214 L+14.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3e0…32acbacked Under54c276$149 inWon+$126.96450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over44c229$101 inLost-$100.766,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Under58c210.67$122 inWon+$88.671,44458.1%839 W · 605 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under52c147.5$77 inWon+$70.7745647.1%215 W · 241 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacce…ce8abacked Over48c144.5$69 inLost-$69.364753.2%25 W · 22 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over47c100$47 inLost-$474,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under53c100$53 inWon+$4749351.7%255 W · 238 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd404…6bb1backed Under54c76$41 inWon+$34.94100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+93.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over49c69.47$34 inLost-$34.045,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x474f…9650backed Over43c65.72$28 inLost-$28.26633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Under57c46.4$26 inWon+$19.9585147.5%404 W · 447 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b41…01c7backed Over47c42$20 inLost-$19.7453839.4%212 W · 326 L-26.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Under51c41.51$21 inWon+$20.2395047.2%448 W · 502 L-28.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Over50c40$20 inLost-$201,66150.3%836 W · 825 L-14.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe315…3911backed Under57c39.65$23 inWon+$16.9357657.8%333 W · 243 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Under56c35$20 inWon+$15.41,01851.6%525 W · 493 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed Under50c29.71$15 inWon+$14.8633653.9%181 W · 155 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Over49c29.48$14 inLost-$14.452,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under51c24.72$13 inWon+$12.211,00351%512 W · 491 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe026…0404backed Under57c24.65$14 inWon+$10.620456.4%115 W · 89 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.