NBA · resolved market
Kings vs. Pelicans: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd960fa05f16eb89d25fd28340acda43519a44791630dabc7428a0fc97770b570
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,499
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,317
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,499 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb2a4…cf8abacked Over | 46c | 3,527$1,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,630.34 | 247 | 44.1%109 W · 138 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 54c | 2,579$1,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,183.56 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 53c | 1,909$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.17 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 44c | 1,445$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.32 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 34c | 1,290$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.55 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 46c | 1,245$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.62 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 51c | 1,095$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.55 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…0584backed Under | 61c | 819.91$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.91 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed0…c618backed Over | 47c | 467.28$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.62 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 269.75$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.92 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 58c | 235.23$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.8 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Under | 52c | 192.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.3 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07fe…8f90backed Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa952…14a5backed Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -4.5wins | -0.20per pick | 52cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Over | 48c | 180.96$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.87 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 40c | 117.62$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.28 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Over | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 46c | 103.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.28 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4935…fc12backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd286…4c1bbacked Under | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Over | 45c | 64.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Under | 57c | 60.3$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 408 | 49%200 W · 208 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 33c | 46.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Under | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Under | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Under | 59c | 38.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Over | 47c | 38.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e6…d117backed Over | 47c | 38.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x137e…20d7backed Over | 45c | 36.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | -14.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x712c…717bbacked Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc1…36bbbacked Under | 59c | 34.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 46c | 31.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Under | 52c | 30.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 409 | 60.6%248 W · 161 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 47c | 30.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked Under | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 53c | 28.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 1,003 | 51%512 W · 491 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Under | 53c | 28.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 336 | 53.9%181 W · 155 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 47c | 22.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kings vs. Pelicans: O/U 233.5this page
- Derik Queen: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Devin Carter: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Domantas Sabonis: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Domantas Sabonis: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Domantas Sabonis: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Kings vs. PelicansPelicans won
- Kings vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylinePelicans won
- Kings vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Kings vs. Pelicans: O/U 229.5Under won
- Kings vs. Pelicans: O/U 230.5Under won
- Kings vs. Pelicans: O/U 231.5Under won
- Kings vs. Pelicans: O/U 232.5Under won
- Nique Clifford: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Spread: Pelicans (-5.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Pelicans (-6.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Pelicans (-7.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Pelicans (-8.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Pelicans (-9.5)Pelicans won
- Trey Murphy III: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Trey Murphy III: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Trey Murphy III: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Zion Williamson: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Zion Williamson: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.