Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a7d2303785cca71e7f90042c0ca5d94c9ce53f69c4c78e4deba4ce64e510341
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,853
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,853 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed No | 52c | 449$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.03 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 38c | 249.37$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.81 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 21c | 234.78$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.43 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 75c | 198.5$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.19 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee88…49a4backed No | 8c | 158.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 66c | 154$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.39 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 75c | 146.6$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.41 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 37c | 138.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4cef…d85bbacked Yes | 25c | 127.58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.5 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 47c | 120$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 60c | 120$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 48c | 113.39$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.96 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed No | 75c | 110$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 12c | 105$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 48c | 104$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.08 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x873c…ac48backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 74c | 95.65$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed Yes | 48c | 80.47$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.74 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc31…3fe8backed Yes | 41c | 80$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 34c | 74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed Yes | 28c | 70.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.45 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 54c | 67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 30c | 66.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.66 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 75c | 63.06$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 74c | 57.8$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb710…49c3backed No | 59c | 52.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 52c | 48.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 27c | 44.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 43.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5409…9dcdbacked Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.35per pick | 50cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 49c | 32.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 50c | 30.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed Yes | 47c | 29.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 75c | 22.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x291a…a405backed Yes | 47c | 21.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x661a…e9e8backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58d3…c14bbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 75c | 19.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 21?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 21?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 21?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 21?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.