Fifa International · resolved market
Will Lionel Messi Win the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Player of the Match Award?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a7ee42a4257c3cf601bf2414699d1682a6c6570cbd7f7b214b7d7fc711d18fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,657
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,651
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,657 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x326f…802dbacked Yes | 26c | 807.01$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 77 | 14.3%11 W · 66 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 69c | 799.96$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.99 | 550 | 44.7%246 W · 304 L | -27.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 63c | 557.84$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.4 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 68c | 549.99$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.34 | 281 | 48.4%136 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 67c | 514.69$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.6 | 263 | 30%79 W · 184 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked No | 57c | 499.99$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.99 | 199 | 29.1%58 W · 141 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5758…b10dbacked Yes | 41c | 354.17$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +147.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dd8abacked No | 62c | 334.42$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.08 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +4.8wins | +0.30per pick | 51cpaid | +127.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f4…cd2ebacked No | 64c | 313.48$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.48 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e693backed Yes | 39c | 284.11$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab0…c21ebacked Yes | 38c | 265.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 38c | 245.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.62 | 792 | 31.1%246 W · 546 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2898…d183backed Yes | 37c | 204.81$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.78 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ac…1cc3backed Yes | 38c | 163.37$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +148.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7026…28d2backed Yes | 35c | 143.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…6071backed Yes | 42c | 137.92$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.53 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 76c | 129.72$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 412 | 31.6%130 W · 282 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…b2aabacked Yes | 39c | 127.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 76c | 121.7$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 457 | 36.3%166 W · 291 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce3…f779backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 662 | 39.6%262 W · 400 L | -48.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…374abacked Yes | 43c | 90$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 132 | 51.5%68 W · 64 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 32c | 90$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 260 | 37.3%97 W · 163 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed Yes | 26c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 24c | 79.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 757 | 29.3%222 W · 535 L | -23.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…3830backed No | 64c | 77.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 35c | 75.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 153 | 32%49 W · 104 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dba…0724backed Yes | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 154 | 55.2%85 W · 69 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x790c…0ac5backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 63c | 52.84$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceac…41d9backed Yes | 38c | 49.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…3c2fbacked No | 60c | 48.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 327 | 65.7%215 W · 112 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 76c | 46.71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 34.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1db…7f42backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4339…e8abbacked Yes | 37c | 29.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 60c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 163 | 33.7%55 W · 108 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 194 | 45.4%88 W · 106 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 232 | 45.7%106 W · 126 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -15.0wins | -0.13per pick | 62cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 63c | 17.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lionel Messi Win the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Player of the Match Award?this page
- Will Emiliano Martínez Win the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Player of the Match Award?No won
- Will Enzo Fernández Win the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Player of the Match Award?No won
- Will Ferran Torres Win the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Player of the Match Award?Yes won
- Will Lamine Yamal Win the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Player of the Match Award?No won
- Will Pedri Win the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Player of the Match Award?No won
- Will Rodri Win the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Player of the Match Award?No won
- Will Unai Simón Win the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Player of the Match Award?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.