Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ad8f91583bb526afeae25ba4ea2dbde753fff7ef5d1f8be446330ec8ff41ce0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,474
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,474 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 45c | 4,087$1,847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,239.27 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 806.09$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.66 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 53c | 796.25$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.6 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 687.62$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.55 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 633.15$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.68 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 16c | 491.38$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.49 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 56c | 448$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.64 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 40c | 433.26$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.8 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 17c | 415.11$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.12 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 57c | 411.2$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.03 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 52c | 370.8$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.28 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 63c | 361.54$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.77 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 63c | 350$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.5 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 63c | 350$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.5 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 63c | 350$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.5 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 24c | 338.43$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.31 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 48c | 307.55$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.96 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 57c | 268$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.28 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 62c | 264.21$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.81 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 70c | 250$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.63 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 236.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3929…afd2backed No | 64c | 234.49$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.49 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 46c | 233.34$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.51 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 231.6$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.1 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed Yes | 36c | 224.69$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.85 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5356…6f2cbacked Yes | 23c | 212.53$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.43per pick | 37cpaid | +153.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 41c | 207.96$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.26 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 23c | 198.86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.46 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 31c | 178.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.49 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed Yes | 23c | 178.91$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.96 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked No | 41c | 173.9$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.54 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 35c | 168$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.96 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 70c | 162.39$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.2 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 64c | 157.89$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.86 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 55c | 155.68$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.28 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 30c | 150.19$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.75 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 39c | 138$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.79 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 58c | 134.9$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.01 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 53c | 133.67$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.23 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 132.57$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.18 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 74c | 131.33$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 42c | 130$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.7 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 61c | 125$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.3 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 55c | 110$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2818…1338backed No | 26c | 109.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 43c | 108.84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.04 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 42c | 102.19$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.61 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 64c | 102$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.28 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.83 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…7a17backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.88 | 55 | 65.5%36 W · 19 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.55 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 94.38$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.03 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 44c | 90.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.9 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 40c | 88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 64c | 88$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.48 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86e5…bf21backed No | 33c | 87.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 30c | 84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…633bbacked No | 18c | 82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…0c9cbacked Yes | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce9…7115backed No | 56c | 77.58$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 37c | 77.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb97…603bbacked No | 61c | 77.1$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.84 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 35c | 75.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 57c | 71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6311…fb18backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 42c | 68.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 27c | 67.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.07 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…35efbacked No | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd54b…f1e4backed Yes | 77c | 62$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked No | 63c | 59.77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 59c | 57.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 59c | 55.22$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 39c | 55.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 59c | 53.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 41c | 52.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 45c | 51.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 39c | 50.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1028…1316backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb672…a1f1backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…9e0cbacked Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…df40backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35d7…28f8backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 59c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0427…a652backed No | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 61c | 49.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 39c | 47.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 65c | 45.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a85…876cbacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…df20backed Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 36c | 39.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.