Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8740929a141826ec996a76cd94aa5e8de90953cab39f920e732c851aa3ae0ff7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,621
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 48c | 1,048$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 45c | 796.07$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.11 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 32c | 744.99$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.07 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb344…31eabacked No | 67c | 663.75$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.74 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 47c | 569.73$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.52 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 543.29$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.71 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 61c | 500$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.86 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 17c | 436.27$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.83 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 39c | 409.09$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.78 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 47c | 358.46$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.36 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 17c | 331.9$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.72 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 33c | 302.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.01 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 51c | 293$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 44c | 273.35$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.19 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 49c | 264.08$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.22 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x632e…6a56backed Yes | 45c | 245.14$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.98 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 53c | 242.36$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.23 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 34c | 210.52$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.89 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 42c | 200$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbce…507dbacked Yes | 47c | 199.98$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.99 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 27c | 199.95$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.16 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 71c | 187.23$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.02 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 56c | 185.52$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.66 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 46c | 173.32$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.11 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 60c | 170.29$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 70c | 167.97$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.65 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 30c | 164.19$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.26 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 52c | 153.42$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 38c | 152.6$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.33 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 52c | 136$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.28 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 120$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 68c | 119.67$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 51c | 105.9$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.9 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 59c | 102.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.02 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 41c | 101$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.86 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 66c | 97.59$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…fee6backed Yes | 55c | 95.39$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.46 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 64c | 93.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…9e0cbacked Yes | 35c | 93.36$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 66c | 92.94$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 39c | 90$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 32c | 89.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 61c | 83.81$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ab…bedcbacked Yes | 49c | 82.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 81.55$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 71c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 79c | 78.79$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 53c | 77.72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 20c | 76.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeef…b7f7backed Yes | 20c | 67.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9abb…3f96backed Yes | 56c | 65.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…033dbacked Yes | 40c | 63.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a2…e032backed Yes | 46c | 63.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 76c | 63.34$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2b…b082backed No | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 57c | 55.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf81a…eba3backed Yes | 54c | 54.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 69c | 54.53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 66c | 52.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 52c | 51.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 49c | 51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 47c | 50.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 69c | 49.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 63c | 49.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8a…b9f8backed No | 45c | 48.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 78c | 47.91$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 44c | 47.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc1…90cfbacked Yes | 56c | 47.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf94e…b2c7backed Yes | 57c | 45.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a85…876cbacked No | 39c | 45.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 25c | 45.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 49c | 44.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 34c | 43.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked No | 47c | 43.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 33c | 42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 51c | 41.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 43c | 40.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e8…94f5backed No | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +47%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 77c | 39.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4338…f330backed Yes | 54c | 37.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 65c | 36.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 48c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked No | 69c | 33.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 34c | 32.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x097d…6f83backed No | 77c | 31.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6833…2011backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 34c | 31.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 78c | 30.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2818…1338backed No | 79c | 29.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…14babacked No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 153 | 75.2%115 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on July 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.