Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump praise al-Sharaa on Monday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b8eb5ae4fb5fa9e7ac5497cba36e7a661e4505eb9d86eb2d06ba8971a024eb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $97,150
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,998
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,150 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf389…e45dbacked No | 0c | 14,114$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a3…ab99backed No | 7c | 10,902$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 5,691$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 34c | 4,518$1,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,968.09 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27b8…b68cbacked No | 1c | 3,741$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 77c | 3,435$2,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.05 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 17c | 3,000$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,487 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed No | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.9 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 23c | 1,932$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,487.85 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86af…f897backed No | 3c | 1,900$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked No | 17c | 1,558$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.57 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd486…2287backed No | 2c | 1,557$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed No | 11c | 1,200$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…55cebacked No | 6c | 1,143$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked No | 38c | 1,117$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421 | 76 | 32.9%25 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed No | 46c | 944.67$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.71 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6d…1ba1backed Yes | 61c | 817.94$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4e…5b7cbacked No | 12c | 795$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.46 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 38cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 21c | 773$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.47 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 28c | 716.21$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.67 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +169.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 17c | 465.73$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.96 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…cfb5backed No | 6c | 460$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 74c | 444.5$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.14 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 31c | 438.7$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.37 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +6.7wins | +0.22per pick | 54cpaid | +50%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…5839backed No | 20c | 400$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.3 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x290f…7e47backed No | 49c | 389.67$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -6.1wins | -0.51per pick | 59cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 4c | 365$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +11.8wins | +0.38per pick | 14cpaid | +350.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa63e…1b97backed No | 6c | 335.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 27cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58c9…eda0backed No | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdd…f158backed No | 69c | 249.44$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.56 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.38per pick | 48cpaid | +578.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x515a…de7fbacked No | 54c | 199.98$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.59 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed Yes | 36c | 110$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.9 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb71f…faa0backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5b…4a6dbacked No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.4 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e0…a793backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed No | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +53%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x88ff…fa1bbacked No | 25c | 77.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 38c | 75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.71 | 153 | 31.4%48 W · 105 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 53c | 74.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 174 | 49.4%86 W · 88 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…3188backed Yes | 54c | 70$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 43 | 72.1%31 W · 12 L | +7.0wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa344…8141backed No | 37c | 65.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2f…21babacked No | 30c | 65.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f2…d8efbacked Yes | 79c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…4afbbacked No | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba9…8920backed Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 121 | 38.8%47 W · 74 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9d…172fbacked No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…81d6backed No | 28c | 46.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…0e8ebacked Yes | 65c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf302…e00abacked Yes | 79c | 40.63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 39c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed Yes | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e2c2backed No | 53c | 37.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7130…773dbacked No | 30c | 36.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c2…5b5bbacked Yes | 77c | 30.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1160…e3f7backed No | 54c | 27.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb58e…3cd3backed Yes | 64c | 27.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5216…d053backed Yes | 59c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.