Fifa International · resolved market
Germany vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bb26922ed25583bfab2548c504a7f09da85176737a3abed0e7949f031068ca7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,499
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98f3…3ca0backed Under | 48c | 597.92$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa278…3369backed Over | 74c | 500$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.89 | 1,111 | 24.3%270 W · 841 L | -32.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf348…e543backed Under | 26c | 499.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 401 | 63.3%254 W · 147 L | +57.7wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 52c | 439.25$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.84 | 3,213 | 47.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 47c | 232$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.04 | 3,077 | 47%1,447 W · 1,630 L | -11.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9516…0bcbbacked Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 562 | 40.6%228 W · 334 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd842…775bbacked Over | 53c | 188$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.36 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked Under | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 518 | 59.8%310 W · 208 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x648b…8c77backed Over | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 108 | 55.6%60 W · 48 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Under | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 559 | 42.4%237 W · 322 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7304…b9f1backed Under | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…c3bebacked Under | 47c | 52.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 706 | 48.2%340 W · 366 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Under | 27c | 50.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa146…6163backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 65c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Germany vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Cornersthis page
- Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total CornersOver won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total CornersOver won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total CornersOver won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total CornersOver won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total CornersOver won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 4.5 CornersOver won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 5.5 CornersOver won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 6.5 CornersOver won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 7.5 CornersOver won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total CornersOver won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total CornersOver won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 12.5 Total CornersOver won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total CornersOver won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total CornersOver won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total CornersOver won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total CornersOver won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 CornersOver won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5 CornersOver won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 3.5 CornersOver won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Take First CornerParaguay won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Total Corners Odd or Even?Even won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.