TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Legacy vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Legacyof Legacy, BetBoom Team
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$126,217
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$155,560

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,217 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfff6…5d2dbacked BetBoom Team29c16,972$4,964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,963.73714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick41cpaid-69.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5bbe…c65dbacked BetBoom Team1c11,442$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.4213315.8%21 W · 112 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Legacy55c9,564$5,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,275.433343.8%146 W · 187 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc882…0662backed BetBoom Team47c8,888$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,200.0813333.1%44 W · 89 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed BetBoom Team11c7,217$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813.9832425.3%82 W · 242 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Legacy57c5,403$3,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,323.1976058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed BetBoom Team42c5,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,099.9923243.5%101 W · 131 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Legacy79c3,955$3,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$845.032,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31a6…0dcfbacked BetBoom Team9c3,630$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.58138.3%31 W · 50 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0562…18a4backed Legacy57c2,909$1,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,242.920448.5%99 W · 105 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Legacy76c2,512$1,897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.361,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x255f…cd91backed Legacy52c2,273$1,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,090.918947.2%42 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3da8…80c3backed BetBoom Team47c2,134$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00033359.8%199 W · 134 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed Legacy79c2,037$1,601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.9738868.3%265 W · 123 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+3.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Legacy53c2,025$1,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$957.392,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4f6…f51cbacked Legacy72c2,008$1,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.472360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dbd…fcdabacked Legacy74c1,997$1,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.536056.7%34 W · 26 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed BetBoom Team28c1,823$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.4461034.3%209 W · 401 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked BetBoom Team42c1,791$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.942,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked BetBoom Team31c1,557$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.12,60452.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L+98.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3914…3db9backed BetBoom Team21c1,508$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.082334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed BetBoom Team52c1,500$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.9945455.1%250 W · 204 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked BetBoom Team48c1,143$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.45,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x07f9…1513backed BetBoom Team43c1,122$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.1244343.3%192 W · 251 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x751b…73fdbacked Legacy61c874.08$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.6225655.1%141 W · 115 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed Legacy57c870.69$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.691,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x847e…3c43backed Legacy54c856.28$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.5829052.4%152 W · 138 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed BetBoom Team26c812$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.865,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed BetBoom Team19c787.64$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.736,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0275…d186backed BetBoom Team13c769.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005058%29 W · 21 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5e1…e05cbacked BetBoom Team6c735.9$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.151030%3 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-52%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x45d5…a7a0backed BetBoom Team44c654.94$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.6318543.8%81 W · 104 L-7.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf6ee…0e41backed BetBoom Team35c639.99$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.71,03839.9%414 W · 624 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Legacy77c616.69$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.891,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e8e…f9b2backed Legacy66c602.73$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.039248.9%45 W · 47 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8e34…4480backed BetBoom Team44c600$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26449935.1%175 W · 324 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e69…7f76backed Legacy60c600$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.8532346.1%149 W · 174 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa094…3f07backed Legacy58c600$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25224942.2%105 W · 144 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Legacy77c523.3$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.363,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa272…797abacked Legacy58c507.76$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.264841.7%20 W · 28 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-18.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked BetBoom Team24c500$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12032832.3%106 W · 222 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed BetBoom Team43c500$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21553746.2%248 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Legacy78c500$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1102,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca81…f2abbacked BetBoom Team12c500$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6035744.3%158 W · 199 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed BetBoom Team27c499.99$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13541716.5%69 W · 348 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71a4…f92ebacked Legacy57c499.99$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2154334.9%15 W · 28 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Legacy69c471.17$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.994,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked BetBoom Team31c449.19$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.437,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ade…fb15backed BetBoom Team23c430.58$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8319748.7%96 W · 101 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0354…2913backed BetBoom Team21c413.45$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.0313540.7%55 W · 80 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac9c…50d8backed BetBoom Team4c400$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1625416.9%43 W · 211 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9859…1650backed Legacy68c396.67$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.6712538.4%48 W · 77 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-25%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x31ab…20e9backed Legacy57c362.86$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.0314048.6%68 W · 72 L-9.1wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-14.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2067…7350backed Legacy58c344.83$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.8327657.6%159 W · 117 L+11.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f0c…51dbbacked Legacy52c325$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15640148.4%194 W · 207 L-14.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x66ea…6791backed Legacy54c320.78$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.7817948%86 W · 93 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Legacy75c319.02$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.664,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd46e…d10dbacked Legacy50c309.74$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.7453034.7%184 W · 346 L-32.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-19.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf56c…fcbdbacked Legacy65c307.51$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.5135449.7%176 W · 178 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab71…2adabacked BetBoom Team25c301.4$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755952.5%31 W · 28 L+5.8wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+23.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x58d1…7ab6backed Legacy58c300$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.034546.7%21 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2ff…906cbacked Legacy77c291.04$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.363351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadaf…aefdbacked BetBoom Team19c286.65$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4684037.9%318 W · 522 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x29db…19c3backed Legacy56c265.18$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.6812041.7%50 W · 70 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Legacy58c258.62$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.6250050.6%253 W · 247 L+2.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked BetBoom Team44c250$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11076748%368 W · 399 L-21.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9ea…59a1backed Legacy55c236.36$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.3619238%73 W · 119 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f0b…f901backed Legacy59c231.1$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.7535953.2%191 W · 168 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed BetBoom Team47c224.38$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.292,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2b4…2ce6backed Legacy57c222.49$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.4929757.6%171 W · 126 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9227…7cedbacked Legacy57c222.11$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.1139847.7%190 W · 208 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe881…fb3dbacked Legacy59c217.97$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.4935466.1%234 W · 120 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x994d…3d8dbacked BetBoom Team9c206.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0652834.3%181 W · 347 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed BetBoom Team39c206.59$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.894,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe692…ea10backed BetBoom Team6c200$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1117617%30 W · 146 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-27.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x04db…7703backed BetBoom Team15c199.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3041645.9%191 W · 225 L+22.3wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+2.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6385…2afabacked BetBoom Team13c197.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0441516.6%69 W · 346 L-36.5wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-41.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4985…dce4backed BetBoom Team11c197.82$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.113545.9%62 W · 73 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa442…dca3backed Legacy52c192.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.8930254.3%164 W · 138 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked Legacy56c190$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.658343.6%254 W · 329 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b26…57e9backed Legacy68c189.99$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.71,48558%862 W · 623 L+66.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed BetBoom Team37c188.79$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.864,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x26d8…69c6backed BetBoom Team34c182.35$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-34.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked BetBoom Team38c175$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.13,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Legacy76c175$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422,06150.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L-18.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23b4…48dabacked Legacy58c172.4$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.4110942.2%46 W · 63 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b78…e589backed BetBoom Team6c170$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.235861.7%221 W · 137 L+18.3wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked BetBoom Team34c168.72$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.155,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe910…57eebacked BetBoom Team37c165.68$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.9217043.5%74 W · 96 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb238…4961backed Legacy78c157.84$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.1713142%55 W · 76 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf21d…922bbacked BetBoom Team29c143.47$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4223056.1%129 W · 101 L-0.5wins0.00per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5501…fe9abacked BetBoom Team47c141.19$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.0618736.9%69 W · 118 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x88a8…5434backed BetBoom Team15c133.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-24.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ab6…078ebacked Legacy52c132.9$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.7923952.3%125 W · 114 L+14.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Legacy75c128.73$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.6587047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Legacy78c124$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3591743.7%401 W · 516 L-35.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x64f0…de5bbacked Legacy58c122.12$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.122948.3%14 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfdbe…b6d8backed BetBoom Team21c119.05$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2514929.5%44 W · 105 L-7.7wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc086…8128backed Legacy73c110.96$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.9614748.3%71 W · 76 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6d4…2f1ebacked Legacy68c109.03$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.8929156.7%165 W · 126 L+9.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.