Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c6074cad170795d551f82ba5a345bb7df7ed47f39c92b56e74b7e4ad0c0b827
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,017
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,017 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 34c | 911.58$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.58 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 41c | 813.75$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.05 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 37c | 471.99$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.88 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 64c | 351.62$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.31 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x207e…319abacked Yes | 35c | 333.71$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.57 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 290.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.85 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 5c | 277.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 59c | 260$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.71 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 226$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.86 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 46c | 217$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.47 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 66c | 181.8$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.43 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 78c | 175$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.58 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 166.31$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.62 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 17c | 148.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 36c | 126.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 30c | 120$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 35c | 120$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 38c | 116.17$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 64c | 111.81$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.01 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 60c | 92.79$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.53 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 91.18$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.87 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 89.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 53c | 89.48$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 43c | 84.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 36c | 83.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 61c | 83.42$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 82$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 46c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 74.74$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 63c | 73$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 45c | 71.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 60c | 70.1$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 37c | 68.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 44c | 68.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 20c | 68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 59c | 67.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 57c | 66.06$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.37 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 65.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 36c | 64.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 64.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cda…d7c6backed No | 50c | 61.68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 68c | 58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10ba…2f9abacked Yes | 39c | 55.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 54c | 55.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 45c | 45.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 58c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 47c | 36.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 36c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 56c | 35.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd569…087bbacked Yes | 39c | 33.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 40c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 40c | 32.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 50c | 31.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 37c | 31.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 79c | 30.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…49c5backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 44c | 25.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 24.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 69c | 20.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5238…be0dbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 64cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x013f…ca85backed No | 57c | 17.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C or higher on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.