Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2479ea4ce6d935a8776945d92b30aab56f4a5a2174e748ca3306778ca501622
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,677
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,568
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,677 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 24c | 1,656$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,252.14 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 29c | 792.87$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.73 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…0817backed No | 75c | 517.31$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.91 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 75c | 424$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 67c | 364.81$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.2 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 31c | 309$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.84 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 31c | 288.34$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.4 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 271$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.96 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 28c | 258.36$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.17 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes | 75c | 249.08$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.22 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 75c | 243$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.25 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 25c | 214$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.5 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x207e…319abacked Yes | 37c | 213.47$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.49 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 25c | 205.1$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.68 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 29c | 193.05$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.07 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 25c | 180.21$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 166.31$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.09 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 31c | 164$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.16 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 41c | 160.36$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.36 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 65c | 156.13$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.54 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 74c | 154$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.91 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 27c | 152.78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.88 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 22c | 148$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.82 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 73c | 140$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 76c | 138.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.63 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 44c | 135.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 19c | 131.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 27c | 120.95$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.84 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 55c | 115.97$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.26 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 11c | 112.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 109.95$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.1 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 72c | 107.5$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.06 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 26c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 89.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.99 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 82$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.92 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 80$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.97 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 79.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 78.85$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.43 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x772f…b3aebacked Yes | 26c | 76.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.34 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 28c | 75.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.45 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 54c | 68$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d74…6bcbbacked Yes | 37c | 67.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.55 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 68c | 66.44$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 25c | 64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8573…c954backed Yes | 32c | 62.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 34c | 59.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.35 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 26c | 55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 26c | 54.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1526…248cbacked Yes | 32c | 53.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 51.36$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf3cd…7564backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 77c | 49.04$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed No | 68c | 47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 64c | 46.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 31c | 44.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 68c | 40.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f12…e708backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 28c | 39.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 76c | 39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…d361backed Yes | 31c | 35.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 75c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf726…c72cbacked No | 76c | 28.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 73c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 76c | 23.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83f6…9ac8backed No | 74c | 16.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C or higher on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.