NBA · resolved market
Rockets vs. Nuggets: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cd86e39f8146f4a3fe3c5aa8d297a6a9aaad9273f0abfc1e12a00969eb9d8b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,761
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,761 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Over | 51c | 3,508$1,789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,788.98 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 49c | 3,041$1,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,551.2 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Under | 45c | 2,691$1,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,493.46 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 2,532$1,341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,341.44 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Under | 47c | 2,214$1,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,180.88 | 403 | 50.1%202 W · 201 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…73bcbacked Over | 56c | 1,367$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764 | 404 | 51.5%208 W · 196 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 45c | 699.71$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.45 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 44c | 615.03$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.4 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 78c | 548.73$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.03 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6eb…5402backed Over | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 52c | 346.91$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.17 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 31c | 288.93$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.31 | 361 | 54.8%198 W · 163 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd8…5cdbbacked Under | 45c | 236.98$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.49 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8441…7925backed Over | 31c | 193.48$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.69 | 182 | 61%111 W · 71 L | +16.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 9c | 170.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 221 | 40.7%90 W · 131 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 36c | 142.67$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.31 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 47c | 132.92$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.37 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Over | 27c | 125.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 520 | 53.3%277 W · 243 L | +29.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…9bb2backed Under | 53c | 120$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 33c | 111.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec91…c229backed Under | 45c | 106.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.9 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…d87bbacked Under | 46c | 105.94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.09 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda4f…77e9backed Under | 45c | 103.92$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.42 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Under | 63c | 83.21$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 49c | 67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 464 | 47.8%222 W · 242 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…4cf7backed Under | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 60c | 55.88$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 46c | 55.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Over | 40c | 55.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcf…20aebacked Under | 45c | 50.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 289 | 43.3%125 W · 164 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 59c | 35.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13f4…48c6backed Over | 52c | 28.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Over | 35c | 28.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 106 | 37.7%40 W · 66 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Over | 56c | 26.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Under | 49c | 22.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 378 | 42.9%162 W · 216 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb329…2a8cbacked Under | 69c | 21.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 60c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 60c | 20.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 557 | 51.9%289 W · 268 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 56c | 19.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 525 | 52%273 W · 252 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rockets vs. Nuggets: O/U 228.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)Nuggets won
- Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Amen Thompson: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Cameron Johnson: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Kevin Durant: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 9.5Yes won
- Rockets vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Rockets vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Rockets vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 110.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Nuggets: O/U 227.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Nuggets: O/U 229.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Nuggets: O/U 230.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Nuggets: O/U 231.5Under won
- Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.