NBA · resolved market
Rockets vs. Nuggets: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc82aacc57ba7a60314f507b308fa2984b32cd4b8b8e274e55bfcba9fcd4d03c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Rockets, Nuggets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,901
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,901 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd43…88d7backed Rockets | 24c | 1,700$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Nuggets | 76c | 1,522$1,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.4 | 293 | 52.6%154 W · 139 L | +14.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Rockets | 30c | 1,108$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.71 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Nuggets | 68c | 911.46$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.56 | 263 | 53.6%141 W · 122 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Nuggets | 70c | 863.48$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.83 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef3…0547backed Rockets | 33c | 582.47$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.49 | 255 | 50.2%128 W · 127 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a5…328ebacked Rockets | 41c | 562.54$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.15 | 108 | 44.4%48 W · 60 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Nuggets | 63c | 437.94$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.26 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e6…0244backed Rockets | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe73e…08f0backed Rockets | 37c | 337.84$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Rockets | 25c | 319.93$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 290 | 40.3%117 W · 173 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66df…7ea5backed Nuggets | 64c | 156.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Rockets | 30c | 153.55$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 66 | 21.2%14 W · 52 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc155…e36bbacked Rockets | 36c | 125$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Nuggets | 67c | 110.79$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.91 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Rockets | 31c | 81.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Nuggets | 72c | 70.84$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Rockets | 33c | 69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 221 | 40.7%90 W · 131 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Nuggets | 59c | 67.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…f632backed Nuggets | 66c | 64.79$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Rockets | 37c | 54.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 337 | 30.3%102 W · 235 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Nuggets | 63c | 53.44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…263cbacked Rockets | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…9bb2backed Nuggets | 32c | 42.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Nuggets | 72c | 33.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Nuggets | 73c | 32.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 378 | 45%170 W · 208 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Nuggets | 60c | 29.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 609 | 45.8%279 W · 330 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbb…727fbacked Nuggets | 62c | 23.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 144 | 48.6%70 W · 74 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d12…37d5backed Nuggets | 76c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rockets vs. Nuggets: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)Nuggets won
- Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Amen Thompson: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Cameron Johnson: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Kevin Durant: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 9.5Yes won
- Rockets vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Rockets vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 110.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Nuggets: O/U 227.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Nuggets: O/U 228.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Nuggets: O/U 229.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Nuggets: O/U 230.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Nuggets: O/U 231.5Under won
- Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.