NBA · resolved market
Jamal Murray: Points O/U 21.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde37cca9a3b37e1b507397d15288f667da942a63ab8ef5f562eba7061e7b4b4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,975 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked No | 47c | 4,499$2,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,130.28 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56be…57eebacked Yes | 53c | 3,635$1,939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,696.27 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc2…eaefbacked Yes | 50c | 2,156$1,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,082.87 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 47c | 787.8$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.63 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 50c | 555$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.57 | 221 | 40.7%90 W · 131 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked No | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16ef…3792backed Yes | 53c | 424.53$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.53 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd63d…8c40backed Yes | 55c | 201.15$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.15 | 137 | 62.8%86 W · 51 L | +14.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…3653backed Yes | 55c | 182.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.27 | 159 | 52.8%84 W · 75 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed No | 45c | 158.59$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.37 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c7…bea7backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed No | 52c | 72.23$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 831 | 58.1%483 W · 348 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed No | 50c | 66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 952 | 60.2%573 W · 379 L | +37.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked No | 50c | 49.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 920 | 58%534 W · 386 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…1207backed Yes | 55c | 36.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bb…07a8backed Yes | 55c | 27.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc991…abd4backed No | 55c | 22.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 487 | 51.7%252 W · 235 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43eb…336dbacked Yes | 55c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +10.7wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 970 | 49.5%480 W · 490 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 21.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)Nuggets won
- Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Amen Thompson: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Cameron Johnson: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Kevin Durant: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 9.5Yes won
- Rockets vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Rockets vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Rockets vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 110.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Nuggets: O/U 227.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Nuggets: O/U 228.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Nuggets: O/U 229.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Nuggets: O/U 230.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Nuggets: O/U 231.5Under won
- Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.