TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
TYLOOof TYLOO, Sinners
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$491,155
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$555,260

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $491,155 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 422 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked Sinners39c52,922$20,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,540.8142440.3%171 W · 253 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Sinners37c28,009$10,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,358.5233343.8%146 W · 187 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Sinners39c25,000$9,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,75041649.8%207 W · 209 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed TYLOO66c16,000$10,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,488.0350054.4%272 W · 228 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked TYLOO71c13,511$9,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,901.5341040%164 W · 246 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked TYLOO61c10,000$6,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,90021655.1%119 W · 97 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa7df…5eeebacked Sinners38c10,000$3,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,824.9516245.1%73 W · 89 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x790e…b82dbacked TYLOO61c9,000$5,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,5403262.5%20 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc6e…fa6fbacked TYLOO62c8,046$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,045.6616248.1%78 W · 84 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Sinners30c8,015$2,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,443.221,39638.9%543 W · 853 L-41.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked TYLOO59c7,500$4,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,06036453.8%196 W · 168 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f5…f3b5backed Sinners59c7,118$4,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,195.729443.6%41 W · 53 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-23.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Sinners27c6,276$1,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,684.491,00752.4%528 W · 479 L+27.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f6e…b0e0backed TYLOO61c6,000$3,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3401172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.22per pick51cpaid+34.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Sinners40c6,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,399.9971645.9%329 W · 387 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x447d…5eeabacked TYLOO61c5,940$3,623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,316.63647.2%17 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-22%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfaa2…e80abacked TYLOO59c5,460$3,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,223.193053.3%16 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Sinners32c5,168$1,669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,668.527,89250.5%3,983 W · 3,909 L+182.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa927…8d9fbacked TYLOO46c5,048$2,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,711.8234559.1%204 W · 141 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Sinners67c4,920$3,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,294.5828453.5%152 W · 132 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Sinners41c4,488$1,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,839.9823243.5%101 W · 131 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked TYLOO64c4,240$2,726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,513.781,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Sinners28c4,187$1,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,15552837.1%196 W · 332 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e71…e570backed TYLOO54c4,150$2,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,903.675347.2%25 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5809…9868backed Sinners22c4,127$898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$898.266225.8%16 W · 46 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2a5…391cbacked TYLOO61c4,050$2,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,579.510550.5%53 W · 52 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x996c…b6ecbacked TYLOO76c4,000$3,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96018860.1%113 W · 75 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Sinners53c3,994$2,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,110.864,22049.2%2,078 W · 2,142 L+61.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed TYLOO65c3,813$2,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,342.131,36066.3%901 W · 459 L+75.4wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+7.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Sinners58c3,699$2,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,142.943,21751.3%1,649 W · 1,568 L+89.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed TYLOO63c3,500$2,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,29511434.2%39 W · 75 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked TYLOO60c3,065$1,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,240.141,76859.2%1,047 W · 721 L+105.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Sinners43c3,029$1,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,302.3417045.9%78 W · 92 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed TYLOO64c3,004$1,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,081.4765346.9%306 W · 347 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Sinners27c3,000$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.6478639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked TYLOO55c2,751$1,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,236.961,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked TYLOO61c2,700$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,050.111,15448.3%557 W · 597 L+4.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed TYLOO56c2,512$1,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,093.2588746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9625…5bb7backed TYLOO60c2,500$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0005459.3%32 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd001…f718backed TYLOO65c2,359$1,529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$830.0228651%146 W · 140 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d2b…afc5backed TYLOO52c2,265$1,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,091.9719659.2%116 W · 80 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed TYLOO56c2,126$1,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$935.5745455.1%250 W · 204 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x751b…73fdbacked TYLOO60c2,100$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84025655.1%141 W · 115 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24f5…98d2backed Sinners43c2,004$864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$864.2910844.4%48 W · 60 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed TYLOO48c2,000$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0407450%37 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a57…7b0abacked TYLOO57c2,000$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86022449.6%111 W · 113 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked TYLOO72c2,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56064852%337 W · 311 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed TYLOO60c2,000$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80051252.3%268 W · 244 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked TYLOO37c2,000$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,269.9917148%82 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f34…b8f2backed Sinners41c1,889$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774.361127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed TYLOO60c1,759$1,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.36,46642.9%2,777 W · 3,689 L-78.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f0f…0e48backed Sinners33c1,743$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.147440.5%30 W · 44 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d0c…1249backed TYLOO55c1,739$956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782.5318338.8%71 W · 112 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x611a…e171backed TYLOO59c1,700$1,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69717460.3%105 W · 69 L+0.7wins0.00per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed TYLOO58c1,682$974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707.895,26231.3%1,647 W · 3,615 L-381.6wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked TYLOO61c1,603$978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.2832542.2%137 W · 188 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4031…92c8backed TYLOO59c1,569$922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.2350846.3%235 W · 273 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc97b…879dbacked TYLOO64c1,538$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.783666.7%24 W · 12 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xee72…1996backed TYLOO51c1,529$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$749.43145.2%14 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c63…3cbbbacked TYLOO59c1,521$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.6246165.5%302 W · 159 L+0.4wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Sinners49c1,491$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.615,02855%2,763 W · 2,265 L+112.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Sinners34c1,470$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.860248.7%293 W · 309 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Sinners43c1,455$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.281,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Sinners37c1,455$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.3560434.1%206 W · 398 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f87…f04ebacked TYLOO68c1,442$983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.1926653.4%142 W · 124 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdfb…980cbacked TYLOO50c1,428$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$713.9832548.3%157 W · 168 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9a4…8427backed TYLOO62c1,409$874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.296848.5%33 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd525…1815backed TYLOO61c1,378$841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.423658.3%21 W · 15 L+5.6wins+0.16per pick43cpaid+36.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa557…6e77backed TYLOO61c1,375$839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.2525248.8%123 W · 129 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0621…0417backed TYLOO50c1,319$658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661.43742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed Sinners40c1,311$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.2245854.8%251 W · 207 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked Sinners26c1,300$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33818350.8%93 W · 90 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf268…ecf6backed Sinners54c1,255$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6727851.3%40 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8976…7367backed TYLOO61c1,250$763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.515648.1%75 W · 81 L+10.0wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+9.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8c8e…c29ebacked TYLOO40c1,239$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$738.7628143.8%123 W · 158 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed TYLOO56c1,216$681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.2737145.6%169 W · 202 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked TYLOO57c1,190$678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.575758.3%441 W · 316 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed TYLOO58c1,156$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.546749.7%232 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Sinners36c1,144$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.8447047.4%223 W · 247 L+11.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Sinners37c1,143$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.924,89737.4%1,832 W · 3,065 L-245.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xffe9…a70ebacked Sinners38c1,123$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.744639.1%18 W · 28 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-18.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1747…4afcbacked Sinners46c1,018$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.7220355.2%112 W · 91 L+13.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5593…2cd1backed TYLOO65c1,016$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.929157.1%52 W · 39 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd70b…dcb1backed TYLOO59c1,012$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.15752.6%30 W · 27 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick58cpaid+7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Sinners43c1,000$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.752,42944.6%1,083 W · 1,346 L-63.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed TYLOO60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40045646.9%214 W · 242 L-1.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x470b…e566backed Sinners1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Sinners40c1,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40024935.7%89 W · 160 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x151e…58debacked TYLOO60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40013765%89 W · 48 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x804d…02bcbacked TYLOO50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+48.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x941f…bac9backed Sinners20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006020%12 W · 48 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Sinners36c996.22$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.6464552.9%341 W · 304 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x895d…11d5backed TYLOO61c983.61$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.612142.9%9 W · 12 L-3.5wins-0.17per pick60cpaid-29.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xff26…a5ddbacked Sinners40c960.19$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3819443.6%41 W · 53 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked TYLOO46c940.18$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.775145.4%341 W · 410 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e86…6dfbbacked Sinners73c915.25$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6709335.5%33 W · 60 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x91e8…f1abbacked TYLOO59c914.58$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.3718654.8%102 W · 84 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked TYLOO55c902.51$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.482,77037.4%1,036 W · 1,734 L-139.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa76c…9db8backed Sinners40c900$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3571421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.25per pick46cpaid-60.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x00f8…2c23backed TYLOO56c890.48$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.4829934.4%103 W · 196 L-12.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.