World Politics · resolved market
Which party wins the most primary votes in Australian election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d332ec9356559facaaa1b694b8268a05e7ca41fcef827665e6b154097ec5466
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Labor Partyof Labor Party, Coalition
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,199,931
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,213,734
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,199,931 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3ec4…bf73backed Coalition | 0c | 1,079,909$1,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,243.51 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…6b6abacked Coalition | 15c | 42,561$6,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,581.31 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Labor Party | 73c | 19,357$14,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,197.15 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Coalition | 0c | 5,136$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Coalition | 74c | 5,090$3,777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,777.23 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Labor Party | 77c | 5,000$3,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,170 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked Coalition | 80c | 3,236$2,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,580.98 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -4.8wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6c76…50fdbacked Labor Party | 31c | 3,207$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,206.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Coalition | 4c | 3,090$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.68 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Coalition | 2c | 2,631$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a1…4209backed Coalition | 1c | 1,509$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Labor Party | 20c | 1,413$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,123.62 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed Labor Party | 66c | 1,329$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.52 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Labor Party | 24c | 1,031$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.09 | 129 | 20.9%27 W · 102 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Labor Party | 27c | 993.35$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.46 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Labor Party | 26c | 905.59$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.47 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Coalition | 79c | 900$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Labor Party | 20c | 780$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1e…0cd2backed Labor Party | 22c | 678.72$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.72 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Coalition | 30c | 635.99$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.6 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -71%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Labor Party | 19c | 525.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.39 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Labor Party | 20c | 500$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.33 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Labor Party | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Labor Party | 20c | 478.01$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.41 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…02ffbacked Labor Party | 30c | 419.65$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.05 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Labor Party | 67c | 320$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.4 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Coalition | 31c | 261.3$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.45 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -42%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d13…082cbacked Labor Party | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.1 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Labor Party | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd69…a2e1backed Coalition | 71c | 200$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Labor Party | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1085…2d69backed Labor Party | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +122.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Labor Party | 23c | 186.27$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.28 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Coalition | 17c | 180$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Labor Party | 22c | 175.08$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.56 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +189.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Coalition | 63c | 175$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.75 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Labor Party | 75c | 155.13$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +75%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeecb…a0a8backed Labor Party | 21c | 145$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Labor Party | 21c | 141.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.59 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Labor Party | 24c | 128$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.28 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…9a64backed Labor Party | 40c | 125.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Labor Party | 24c | 119.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.87 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Labor Party | 30c | 104$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6512…5291backed Labor Party | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…17d1backed Labor Party | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Coalition | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.9 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…800abacked Labor Party | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc710…afe5backed Labor Party | 21c | 97.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.12 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ae…9b16backed Labor Party | 25c | 85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Coalition | 61c | 78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a21…1502backed Coalition | 71c | 74.76$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd0…8bc2backed Coalition | 80c | 70.51$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.41 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Labor Party | 28c | 70$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96ed…a350backed Labor Party | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +410.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x56be…8cffbacked Labor Party | 29c | 53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 38cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Labor Party | 21c | 49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.71 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c87…f49ebacked Coalition | 79c | 49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked Coalition | 68c | 42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac61…f5f7backed Coalition | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Coalition | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Coalition | 51c | 39.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed Labor Party | 36c | 37.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7313…cbbcbacked Coalition | 41c | 35.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04e7…eeadbacked Coalition | 79c | 21.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…16bdbacked Coalition | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4960…4f17backed Labor Party | 69c | 15.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 67cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d2…d94cbacked Labor Party | 80c | 15.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.