Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Adrian Mannarino vs Rinky Hijikata
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e88e89801cfbb3c7b9e2064a7d6238d99e0596762ff3d3f26332eeadfbdc017
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hijikataof Mannarino, Hijikata
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,812
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,154
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,812 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Mannarino | 43c | 20,000$8,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,600 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Hijikata | 57c | 18,401$10,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,912.41 | 162 | 42%68 W · 94 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x779a…ca34backed Mannarino | 44c | 15,401$6,823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,822.61 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Hijikata | 59c | 9,000$5,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,690 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Hijikata | 56c | 3,393$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,492.86 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Hijikata | 55c | 3,107$1,709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,397.77 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Hijikata | 56c | 2,533$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,122.51 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1997…2e36backed Hijikata | 60c | 2,248$1,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.3 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Mannarino | 17c | 2,196$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.09 | 190 | 23.2%44 W · 146 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Hijikata | 56c | 1,885$1,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.66 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mannarino | 41c | 1,284$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.62 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15fe…86bebacked Hijikata | 60c | 1,135$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.51 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Mannarino | 39c | 1,123$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.08 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Mannarino | 35c | 1,108$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.16 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Hijikata | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…7c83backed Hijikata | 58c | 999.99$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…3b80backed Mannarino | 41c | 969.98$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.69 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Mannarino | 43c | 900$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387 | 1,161 | 37.6%437 W · 724 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Hijikata | 57c | 850$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf74d…9930backed Hijikata | 60c | 767.5$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.5 | 261 | 58.2%152 W · 109 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Mannarino | 32c | 513$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.24 | 990 | 44.8%444 W · 546 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked Hijikata | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Mannarino | 42c | 476.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Hijikata | 65c | 435.59$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.4 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Mannarino | 41c | 370$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.7 | 421 | 41.8%176 W · 245 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Mannarino | 8c | 300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bf…b02dbacked Hijikata | 59c | 254.24$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.24 | 591 | 65.3%386 W · 205 L | -16.9wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a45…41f6backed Mannarino | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4da6…59fabacked Mannarino | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Hijikata | 79c | 213.73$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.03 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Mannarino | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 108 | 9.3%10 W · 98 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Mannarino | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Hijikata | 61c | 192.19$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.19 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d2…4abfbacked Mannarino | 21c | 189.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…2ec1backed Hijikata | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | -13.4wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Hijikata | 71c | 152.59$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.04 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Mannarino | 44c | 150$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 228 | 40.4%92 W · 136 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1660…9d86backed Mannarino | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Mannarino | 41c | 110.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.38 | 265 | 35.5%94 W · 171 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb43e…453cbacked Hijikata | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 63cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…4e71backed Mannarino | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 58 | 67.2%39 W · 19 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea7…657ebacked Mannarino | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46e…db14backed Hijikata | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 188 | 63.8%120 W · 68 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…76e9backed Hijikata | 56c | 95.25$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.91 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 60cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Hijikata | 78c | 93$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 281 | 39.1%110 W · 171 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd61…0002backed Hijikata | 56c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf32a…dea9backed Hijikata | 59c | 86.19$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…07aabacked Hijikata | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 167 | 62.9%105 W · 62 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Hijikata | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.19per pick | 64cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Hijikata | 60c | 83.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Hijikata | 56c | 82.54$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f42…2260backed Hijikata | 58c | 65.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Hijikata | 74c | 62.56$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fb…f935backed Hijikata | 58c | 60.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Hijikata | 60c | 55.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 602 | 40.5%244 W · 358 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aba…2584backed Hijikata | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Mannarino | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…67f5backed Hijikata | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed Hijikata | 56c | 49.77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeabd…8115backed Hijikata | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Hijikata | 56c | 40.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 678 | 36%244 W · 434 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Hijikata | 56c | 39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Hijikata | 63c | 37.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Hijikata | 59c | 37.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 222 | 36.9%82 W · 140 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…a609backed Hijikata | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…8275backed Hijikata | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x901b…59efbacked Hijikata | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 295 | 19.7%58 W · 237 L | -15.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb821…5cddbacked Hijikata | 58c | 30.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 364 | 64.3%234 W · 130 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Hijikata | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…3679backed Mannarino | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -6.0wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb490…91e7backed Mannarino | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Hijikata | 55c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2501…6154backed Hijikata | 60c | 21.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Men's: Adrian Mannarino vs Rinky Hijikatathis page
- Set 1 Winner: Mannarino vs HijikataHijikata won
- Set Handicap: Hijikata (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5)Hijikata won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.