Earnings · resolved market
Will Rocket Lab (RKLB) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7efacba192fadccfa3f6c17c7362f3f89c08cb2e70e146d0618b59e49f1e4ab1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $371,770
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $372,645
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $371,770 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f23…90dbbacked Yes | 61c | 993.44$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 23c | 729.46$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.5 | 342 | 37.1%127 W · 215 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 32c | 699.92$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.97 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9788…47b1backed Yes | 78c | 643.43$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.43 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 40c | 484.78$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.91 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0923…bd50backed No | 25c | 435.79$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 76c | 416.02$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.87 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89d5…b232backed Yes | 79c | 386.8$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 22c | 326.2$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.7 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 73c | 311.34$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.48 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f1…790bbacked No | 22c | 307.21$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.86 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x720e…17b0backed Yes | 67c | 297.31$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 19c | 273.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.51 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -20%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 16c | 271.62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.63 | 302 | 15.2%46 W · 256 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 21c | 193.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 760 | 37.6%286 W · 474 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde4a…9577backed Yes | 78c | 162.83$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19b4…9518backed Yes | 80c | 128.85$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4a…4bb3backed Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 34c | 120.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed Yes | 78c | 119.54$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb23…3ff6backed No | 21c | 100.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…fb86backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc034…7d2fbacked Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 79c | 99.98$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36fa…1125backed No | 30c | 96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdaec…eaafbacked No | 18c | 83.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed No | 34c | 79.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd84b…0df3backed No | 29c | 76.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x316d…ef66backed Yes | 66c | 75.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…0619backed No | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x650b…ebc3backed Yes | 61c | 69.82$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -59%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 24c | 69.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…684dbacked No | 37c | 68.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6741…0179backed Yes | 64c | 68$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x444e…31c1backed Yes | 68c | 63.67$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -66%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52ef…a3adbacked No | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1146…7ebdbacked Yes | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…ab1cbacked No | 21c | 57.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed No | 20c | 57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x080c…130cbacked No | 27c | 56.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a68…33bfbacked No | 27c | 54.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x520c…c42dbacked No | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x537e…06ebbacked No | 21c | 51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb6…ff78backed Yes | 79c | 50.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…03b4backed No | 26c | 43.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 34c | 41.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…2224backed Yes | 62c | 40.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cf…7601backed Yes | 69c | 40.28$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fb…a582backed Yes | 66c | 39.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf3…68aebacked Yes | 62c | 34.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…b141backed Yes | 66c | 30.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a36…428fbacked No | 38c | 29.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37d8…a0b8backed Yes | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9400…4f20backed No | 39c | 27.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +87%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1756…c84dbacked Yes | 79c | 27.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0631…1e50backed Yes | 78c | 25.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…4f62backed Yes | 79c | 25.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 68c | 23.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…4323backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…a516backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb2d…1dc7backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda03…bc18backed Yes | 77c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x014b…243bbacked Yes | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cc…686dbacked Yes | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 66c | 17.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…b7aebacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.