F1 · resolved market
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f203c48099b8dfbe7cdc3bd8ea4cff9ec8f465f16dabbe5931234fbee7707d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,868
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 41c | 8,322$3,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,384.13 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked No | 70c | 1,715$1,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.89 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 23c | 1,577$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.14 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked No | 58c | 1,500$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed No | 59c | 1,244$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.14 | 144 | 58.3%84 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…63f9backed No | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Yes | 35c | 939.09$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.19 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +144.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d448backed No | 59c | 908.46$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.4 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 57c | 816.01$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.51 | 122 | 46.7%57 W · 65 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84c…1080backed Yes | 41c | 737.61$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa5…7cc9backed No | 58c | 717.13$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.27 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9186…9220backed No | 58c | 687.77$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.74 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +5.6wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xab4d…3f0bbacked No | 60c | 502$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4af0…9996backed Yes | 43c | 458.14$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked No | 60c | 450$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 18c | 443.91$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.52 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e2…1f9abacked Yes | 22c | 405.47$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.55 | 247 | 20.6%51 W · 196 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…73febacked No | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +9.1wins | +0.35per pick | 38cpaid | +117.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…7976backed Yes | 17c | 298.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6013…9826backed No | 68c | 295.75$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3a…9c1ebacked Yes | 7c | 264.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked No | 57c | 250$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.5 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 61c | 236.82$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.76 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d40…ec52backed Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.89 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf83b…44a2backed Yes | 45c | 193.38$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…2101backed No | 68c | 180.32$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.55 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aee…c139backed No | 36c | 167.27$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.31 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00a1…df06backed Yes | 42c | 140$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 17c | 118.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 58c | 113.32$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed No | 52c | 103.89$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafd2…9693backed No | 54c | 99.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed No | 56c | 99.98$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 59c | 99.09$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.34 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe807…4d35backed Yes | 36c | 95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafcd…dc83backed Yes | 27c | 94.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Yes | 18c | 92.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ce…316cbacked No | 47c | 82.32$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda88…4fd7backed Yes | 25c | 73.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bef…aaabbacked Yes | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d27dbacked Yes | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -5.2wins | -0.31per pick | 60cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 60c | 64.58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf2…e87dbacked Yes | 42c | 64.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 49cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa159…ac8ebacked Yes | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 65c | 54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca45…c15bbacked Yes | 43c | 50.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…f948backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e8…cc6cbacked No | 65c | 45.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c7…c6bdbacked No | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 54c | 44.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 101 | 42.6%43 W · 58 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0690…8821backed Yes | 44c | 43.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…235cbacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b03…12a2backed Yes | 40c | 37.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x941e…9775backed Yes | 58c | 34.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f18…d6cabacked Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6456…43b9backed Yes | 36c | 33.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 58c | 32.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d2…7ad6backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 100 | 65%65 W · 35 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fb…72cdbacked No | 59c | 29.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cb…b928backed No | 71c | 24.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 22.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 72c | 16.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…f756backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?this page
- Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?No won
- Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.