Earnings · resolved market
Will Sonos (SONO) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fcbdfbd6a6b450bd496003f052b818fa36e289e44d414eb7a1abf3dbf103c82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 44c | 3,678$1,617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,061.29 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 58c | 800$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 37c | 685.4$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.29 | 760 | 37.6%286 W · 474 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed Yes | 35c | 450$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.3 | 342 | 37.1%127 W · 215 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 54c | 399.98$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.99 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x830f…cda7backed Yes | 74c | 308.5$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.79 | 27 | 92.6%25 W · 2 L | +11.3wins | +0.42per pick | 51cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x0d59…f7e5backed No | 68c | 300$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 168 | 64.3%108 W · 60 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa68…ba5dbacked No | 51c | 257.26$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.6 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 196$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.32 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 23c | 175.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 67c | 160$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.2 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -6.1wins | -0.18per pick | 67cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe000…cbb1backed Yes | 31c | 160$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.8 | 141 | 71.6%101 W · 40 L | +22.4wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 59c | 148$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.68 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 57c | 143.3$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.44 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x475f…17bcbacked Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 49c | 95$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.45 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 48c | 76$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.44 | 578 | 38.9%225 W · 353 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 57c | 71.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 51c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -8.7wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -31%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 49c | 64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ac…3590backed No | 41c | 62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 52c | 62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -30%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…9a8ebacked Yes | 59c | 57.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 67c | 52.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -7.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe123…2fc1backed No | 58c | 52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -5.8wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -60%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 58c | 50.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b50…b087backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 66cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…1b0dbacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5a86backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…4a9dbacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…e637backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0657…2b79backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…47a2backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…e434backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd99c…8490backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00b5…1b11backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -60%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9882…1d24backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacf8…f5bbbacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e8…637abacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…e1c8backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd20…6159backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0e…3c0fbacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbdc…f5e4backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…9065backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd219…0412backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x239f…8b82backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93d9…ad95backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5c…767bbacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.22per pick | 41cpaid | -41%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x20f2…a18ebacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e2…13e1backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbc…9feabacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…ceecbacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…a4e6backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 59c | 49.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf85…f7e6backed Yes | 61c | 46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed Yes | 49c | 38.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dff…bab8backed No | 41c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 58c | 34.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 179 | 35.2%63 W · 116 L | -14.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0a…074fbacked Yes | 60c | 34.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa2…a56bbacked No | 57c | 31.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed No | 33c | 31.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 50c | 30.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…7ed7backed Yes | 59c | 28.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7edd…bd63backed Yes | 61c | 26.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099e…8201backed Yes | 59c | 25.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 49c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -71%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed Yes | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 65cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed No | 70c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x290e…1e65backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -17.5wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…cc2cbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa48c…5506backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.